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Export growth, export instability, investment and economic growth in India: a time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Krishan K Kaushik*
  • Lawrence Nii Arbenser
  • K. K. Klein

    (Himachal Pradesh University, India and University of Lethbridge, Canada
    University of Lethbridge, Canada)

Abstract

This paper uses Johansen’s co-integration analysis and a vector error-correction model to investigate the relationship between economic growth, export growth, export instability and gross fixed capital formation (investment) in India during the period 1971- 2005. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run relationship among these variables and the Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP. For example, ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in exports raises GDP by an estimated 0.42% in the long run. The short term dynamic behavior of income growth function was investigated by estimating an error correction model in which the error correction term was found to be correctly signed and statistically significant. The policy implication is that government should continue to pursue export oriented measures if India is to secure greater levels of income and more rapid and sustained economic growth in the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Krishan K Kaushik* & Lawrence Nii Arbenser & K. K. Klein, 2008. "Export growth, export instability, investment and economic growth in India: a time series analysis," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 41(2), pages 155-170, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.41:year:2008:issue2:pp:155-170
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:aer:wpaper:322 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Keshab Raj Bhattarai, 2016. "Economic Growth and Development in India and SAARC Countries," EcoMod2016 9631, EcoMod.
    3. Ben Yedder, Nadia & El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2023. "Boosting Economic Growth in Angola: Unveiling the Dynamics of Domestic Investments and Exports," MPRA Paper 119480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Raju GUNTUKULA, 2018. "Exports, imports and economic growth in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 221-230, Summer.
    5. Emine KILAVUZ & Bet l ALTAY TOPCU, 2012. "Export and Economic Growth in the Case of the Manufacturing Industry: Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 201-215.
    6. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    7. Faiz Bilquees & Tahir Mukhtar, 2011. "Export Instability, Income Terms of Trade Instability and Growth: The Case of India," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(39), pages 25-44, March.
    8. Triyakshana Seshadri, 2011. "Is the Path to Higher Exports in India Paved with Export Zones?," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 6(1), pages 25-41, April.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2018. "Impact of multilateral trade liberalization and aid for trade for productive capacity building on export revenue instability," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-152.
    10. Pradeep Agrawal, 2014. "The Role of Exports in India's Economic Growth," IEG Working Papers 345 JEL Classification: O, Institute of Economic Growth.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export Instability; Investment; Economic Growth; Co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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