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A CGE model analysis of effects of adjustment to terms of trade shocks on agriculture and income distribution in Kenya

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  • Karingi, Stephen N.
  • Siriwardana, Mahinda.

    (Kenya Institute for Public Research and Analysis
    University of New England)

Abstract

A simulation analysis using Kenyan economy CGE model is undertaken to look at the effects of two important terms of trade shocks facing Kenya in the mid-1970s. It is evident that the Kenyan economy is very vulnerable to external shocks. Consequently, as these shocks invariably created internal and external imbalances, the policies pursued by the government were important. Some of these policies are analysed in this paper. What seems to be an important outcome is that higher import tariffs and indirect taxes may have reduced the positive impacts of the export boom that were being experienced by the economy at the time, albeit marginally. However, these policies had been introduced as the government tried to grapple with the adverse effects that the oil-price shock seemed to have created in the economy. Hence, the policies may not be seen as an indication of government's mismanagement given that it may not have been aware of the impending windfall from the boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Karingi, Stephen N. & Siriwardana, Mahinda., 2003. "A CGE model analysis of effects of adjustment to terms of trade shocks on agriculture and income distribution in Kenya," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 87-108, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.37:year:2003:issue1:pp:87-108
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed KARIM & Eric Tchouamou NJOYA, 2013. "Impact of Inbound Tourism in Kenyan Economy: An Analysis Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(7), pages 911-932, July.
    2. Eric Tchouamou-Njoya@hs-bremen.de, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Inbound Tourism in Kenya: A CGE Analysis," EcoMod2012 3901, EcoMod.
    3. Parra Osorio, Juan Carlos & Wodon, Quentin, 2010. "Gender, Time Use, and Labor Income in Guinea: Micro and Macro Analyses," MPRA Paper 28465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nganou, Jean-Pascal & Parra, Juan Carlos & Wodon, Quentin, 2009. "Oil price shocks, poverty, and gender: a social accouting matrix analysis for Kenya," MPRA Paper 28471, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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