IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jas/jasssj/2010-20-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Soft Power, World System Dynamics, and Democratization: A Bass Model of Democracy Diffusion 1800-2000

Author

Abstract

This article uses Polity IV data to probe system dynamics for studies of the global diffusion of democracy from 1800 to 2000. By analogy with the Bass model of diffusion of innovations, as translated into system dynamics by Sterman, the dynamic explanation proposed focuses on transitions to democracy, soft power, and communication rates on a global level. The analysis suggests that the transition from democratic experiences ('the soft power of democracy') can be estimated from the systems dynamics simulation of an extended Bass model. Soft power, fueled by the growth in communications worldwide, is today the major force behind the diffusion of democracy. Our findings indicate the applicability of system dynamics simulation tools for the analysis of political change over time in the world system of polities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikael Sandberg, 2011. "Soft Power, World System Dynamics, and Democratization: A Bass Model of Democracy Diffusion 1800-2000," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 14(1), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2010-20-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jasss.org/14/1/4/4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    2. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Ward, Michael D., 2006. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 911-933, October.
    3. Peter T. Leeson & Andrea M. Dean, 2009. "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 533-551, July.
    4. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1825-1832, December.
    5. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2003. "Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 135-150, February.
    6. Rose, Richard & Shin, Doh Chull, 2001. "Democratization Backwards: The Problem of Third-Wave Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 331-354, April.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    8. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    9. Cusack, Thomas R., 1987. "Government budget processes," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 325-458.
    10. Hadenius,Axel, 1992. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521416856, October.
    11. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    12. McCrone, Donald J. & Cnudde, Charles F., 1967. "Toward a Communications Theory of Democratic Political Development: A Causal Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 72-79, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyu Li & Jiahong Yuan & Yan Shi & Tianteng Wang & Xiangpei Hu & Felix Tung Sun Chan & Junhu Ruan, 2020. "An extended Bass Model on consumer quantity of B2C commerce platforms," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 609-628, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cambier, Adrien & Chardy, Matthieu & Figueiredo, Rosa & Ouorou, Adam & Poss, Michael, 2022. "Optimizing subscriber migrations for a telecommunication operator in uncertain context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 308-321.
    2. Stefan N. Groesser & Niklas Jovy, 2016. "Business model analysis using computational modeling: a strategy tool for exploration and decision-making," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 61-88, February.
    3. Chumnumpan, Pattarin & Shi, Xiaohui, 2019. "Understanding new products’ market performance using Google Trends," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-103.
    4. Bi-Huei Tsai & Yiming Li, 2011. "Modelling competition in global LCD TV industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(22), pages 2969-2981.
    5. A. Negahban & J.S. Smith, 2016. "The effect of supply and demand uncertainties on the optimal production and sales plans for new products," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 3852-3869, July.
    6. Stefan Groesser & Niklas Jovy, 2016. "Business model analysis using computational modeling: a strategy tool for exploration and decision-making," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 61-88, February.
    7. Shin, Hyungsup & Jung, Jiyeon & Koo, Yoonmo, 2020. "Forecasting the video data traffic of 5 G services in south korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Yogesh V. Joshi & David J. Reibstein & Z. John Zhang, 2009. "Optimal Entry Timing in Markets with Social Influence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 926-939, June.
    9. Guo, Xuezhen, 2014. "A novel Bass-type model for product life cycle quantification using aggregate market data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 208-216.
    10. Stone, Glenn Davis & Flachs, Andrew & Diepenbrock, Christine, 2014. "Rhythms of the herd: Long term dynamics in seed choice by Indian farmers," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 26-38.
    11. Hélène Dernis & Mariagrazia Squicciarini & Roberto Pinho, 2016. "Detecting the emergence of technologies and the evolution and co-development trajectories in science (DETECTS): a ‘burst’ analysis-based approach," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 930-960, October.
    12. Jayasekara, Dinithi N. & Fredriksson, Per G., 2021. "Culture, intellectual property rights, and technology adoption," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 317-330.
    13. Chuan Zhang & Yu-Xin Tian & Ling-Wei Fan, 2020. "Improving the Bass model’s predictive power through online reviews, search traffic and macroeconomic data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 295(2), pages 881-922, December.
    14. Bernd Frick & Franziska Prockl, 2018. "Information Precision In Online Communities: Player Valuations On Www.Transfermarkt.De," Working Papers Dissertations 37, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    15. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    16. Amini, Mehdi & Li, Haitao, 2011. "Supply chain configuration for diffusion of new products: An integrated optimization approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 313-322, June.
    17. Gunitsky, Seva, 2014. "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 561-597, July.
    18. Massiani, Jérôme, 2015. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of policies for the development of electric vehicles in Germany: Methods and results," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 19-26.
    19. Yang Liu and Taoyuan Wei, 2016. "Market and Non-market Policies for Renewable Energy Diffusion: A Unifying Framework and Empirical Evidence from Chinas Wind Power Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    20. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2010-20-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Renzini (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.