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Adaptive Estimation of Cointegrated Models: Simulation Evidence and an Application to the Forward Exchange Market

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  • Hodgson, Douglas J

Abstract

The paper reports simulation and empirical evidence on the finite-sample performance of adaptive estimators in cointegrated systems. Adaptive estimators are asymptotically efficient, even when the shape of the likelihood function is unknown. We consider two representations of cointegrated systems--triangular cointegrating regressions and error correction models. The motivation for and advantages of adaptive estimators in such systems are discussed and their construction is described. We report results from the estimation of a forward exchange market unbiasedness regression using the adaptive and competing estimators, and provide related Monte Carlo simulation evidence on the performance of the estimators.

Suggested Citation

  • Hodgson, Douglas J, 1999. "Adaptive Estimation of Cointegrated Models: Simulation Evidence and an Application to the Forward Exchange Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 627-650, Nov.-Dec..
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:14:y:1999:i:6:p:627-50
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1999-v14.6/
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    Cited by:

    1. Yiguo Sun, 2014. "Semi-Parametric Estimation Of Linear Cointegrating Models With Nonlinear Contemporaneous Endogeneity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 437-461, August.
    2. Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Testing Forward Exchange Rate Unbiasedness Efficiently: A Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 325-353, May.
    3. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive estimation of cointegrating regressions with ARMA errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 231-267, August.
    4. Douglas Hodgson, 2002. "Semiparametric Efficient Estimation of the Mean of a Time Series in the Presence of Conditional Heterogeneity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 146, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    5. Douglas J. Hodgson & Keith P. Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.

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