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Credit Rationing and Threshold Effects in the Relation between Money and Output

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  • Galbraith, John W

Abstract

The possibility that the effect of monetary policy on output may depend on whether credit conditions are tight or loose can be expressed as a non-linearity in the relation between real money supply and output, of which a simple case is a threshold effect. In this case, consistent with the credit-rationing model of Blinder (1987), the monetary variable has a more powerful effect if it is below some threshold than when it is above. Testing for the importance of this threshold is straightforward if the appropriate threshold value is known a priori, but where the value is not known and must be chosen based on the sample, the testing problem becomes more difficult. We apply recently-developed tests applicable in this situation to both US and Canadian data, and find substantial evidence of a threshold effect, particularly in US data. However, the estimated threshold values are high. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Galbraith, John W, 1996. "Credit Rationing and Threshold Effects in the Relation between Money and Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 419-429, July-Aug..
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:4:p:419-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Caner,M. & Hansen,B.E., 1998. "Threshold autoregression with a near unit root," Working papers 27, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1025-1040, March.
    4. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi & Jalolov, Mirzosharif, 2005. "Money-income causality revisited in EGARCH: Spillovers of monetary policy to Asia from the US," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 299-313, April.
    6. Li Jing, 2016. "Effects of filtering data on testing asymmetry in threshold autoregressive models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 549-565, December.
    7. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    10. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
    11. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
    13. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Alexander Ziegenbein, 2016. "Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions," Working Paper 16-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    14. Rozina Shaheen, 2020. "Credit market conditions and impact of monetary policy in a developing economy context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 409-425, May.
    15. Rizki E. Wimanda, 2014. "Threshold effects of exchange rate depreciation and money growth on inflation: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 196 - 215, March.
    16. Ahmad Yamin & Donayre Luiggi, 2016. "Outliers and persistence in threshold autoregressive processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 37-56, February.
    17. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa & Mervyn J. Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
    18. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    19. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    20. Alessio Anzuini & Francesca Brusa, 2016. "Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1046, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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