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Assessing climate change and adaptive capacity at local scale using observed and remotely sensed data

Author

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  • Mpandeli, S.
  • Nhamo, Luxon
  • Moeletsi, M.
  • Masupha, T.
  • Magidi, J.
  • Tshikolomo, K.
  • Liphadzi, S.
  • Naidoo, D.
  • Mabhaudhi, T.

Abstract

Climate variability and change impacts are manifesting through declining rainfall totals and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, floods and heatwaves. These environmental changes are affecting mostly rural populations in developing countries due to low adaptive capacity and high reliance on natural systems for their livelihoods. While broad adaptation strategies exist, there is need to contextualise them to local scale. This paper assessed rainfall, temperature and water stress trends over time in Capricorn District, South Africa, using Standardized Precipitation Index, Thermal Heat Index, and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy of water stress. Observed rainfall and temperature data from 1960 to 2015 was used to assess climatic variations, and NDVI was used to assess water stress from 2000 to 2019. Results show a marked increase in drought frequency and intensity, decreasing rainfall totals accompanied by increasing temperatures, and increasing water stress during the summer season. Long-term climatic changes are a basis to develop tailor-made adaptation strategies. Eighty-one percent of the cropped area in Capricorn District is rainfed and under smallholder farming, exposing the district to climate change risks. As the intensity of climate change varies both in space and time, adaptation strategies also vary depending on exposure and intensity. A combination of observed and remotely sensed climatic data is vital in developing tailor-made adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mpandeli, S. & Nhamo, Luxon & Moeletsi, M. & Masupha, T. & Magidi, J. & Tshikolomo, K. & Liphadzi, S. & Naidoo, D. & Mabhaudhi, T., 2019. "Assessing climate change and adaptive capacity at local scale using observed and remotely sensed data," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-26:100240.
    • Handle: RePEc:iwt:jounls:h049413
    DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100240
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luxon Nhamo & Bekithemba Ndlela & Sylvester Mpandeli & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2020. "The Water-Energy-Food Nexus as an Adaptation Strategy for Achieving Sustainable Livelihoods at a Local Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Fust, Pascal & Schlecht, Eva, 2022. "Importance of timing: Vulnerability of semi-arid rangeland systems to increased variability in temporal distribution of rainfall events as predicted by future climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    3. Azwihangwisi E. Nesamvuni & Khathutshelo A. Tshikolomo & Gabriel R. Lekalakala & Brilliant M. Petja & Johan van Niekerk, 2022. "A framework to monitor and evaluate the vulnerability of smallholder livestock farmers: a case study of Limpopo & Mpumalanga Provinces," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 732-752, March.
    4. Magidi, J. & van Koppen, Barbara & Nhamo, L. & Mpandeli, S. & Slotow, R. & Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe, 2021. "Informing equitable water and food policies through accurate spatial information on irrigated areas in smallholder farming systems," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-13(24):36.
    5. Gift Nxumalo & Bashar Bashir & Karam Alsafadi & Hussein Bachir & Endre Harsányi & Sana Arshad & Safwan Mohammed, 2022. "Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Ephias Mugari & Nthaduleni Samuel Nethengwe, 2022. "Mainstreaming Ecosystem-Based Disaster Risk Reduction: Towards a Sustainable and Just Transition in Local Development Planning in Rural South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Lindumusa Myeni & Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi, 2020. "Factors Determining the Adoption of Strategies Used by Smallholder Farmers to Cope with Climate Variability in the Eastern Free State, South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, September.
    8. Lindumusa Myeni & Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi & Isaiah Nyagumbo & Salome Modiselle & Lebohang Mokoena & Ikalafeng Ben Kgakatsi, 2021. "Improving the Food and Nutritional Security of Smallholder Farmers in South Africa: Evidence from the InnovAfrica Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, September.
    9. Lazarus Chapungu & Luxon Nhamo & Roberto Cazzolla Gatti & Munyaradzi Chitakira, 2020. "Quantifying Changes in Plant Species Diversity in a Savanna Ecosystem Through Observed and Remotely Sensed Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Luxon Nhamo & Sylvester Mpandeli & Stanley Liphadzi & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2022. "Securing Land and Water for Food Production through Sustainable Land Reform: A Nexus Planning Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-15, June.

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