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Office Property Pricing and Macroeconomic Shocks: European Regions through the Real Estate Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Elmar Lang

    (EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht)

  • Ferdinand Mager

    (EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht)

  • Kerstin Hennig

    (EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht)

Abstract

We study the relation between European office prices and their fundamentals by using a panel dataset of 29 major European cities over 25 years. We control for the dotcom crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), and sovereign debt crisis to analyze the varying impact of our variables. We find real estate variables such as rent and vacancies to be the most important factors in explaining for office values. For the European Monetary Union, we find monetary policy measures played a considerable role only during the GFC. For Europe as a whole, monetary policy variables are less important. We document a strong negative linkage of the risk premium of investors to office prices during crisis times, but not in normal times. The dotcom crisis left European office prices almost unaffected. The German and Swiss office markets exhibit safe haven characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Elmar Lang & Ferdinand Mager & Kerstin Hennig, 2022. "Office Property Pricing and Macroeconomic Shocks: European Regions through the Real Estate Cycle," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 217-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:25:n:02:2022:p:217-236
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dobson, S M & Goddard, J A, 1992. "The Determinants of Commercial Property Prices and Rents," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 301-321, October.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December.
    3. Rahul Srivatsa & Stephen L. Lee, 2012. "European real estate market convergence," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(5), pages 458-472, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazushi Matsuo & Morito Tsutsumi & Toyokazu Imazeki, 2023. "Asymmetric Dynamics of Rent and Vacancy Rates in the Tokyo Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 1-41.
    2. Sariye Belgin Akcay, 2023. "Current Account Imbalances, House Prices, and Institutions," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 343-392.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European office properties; Real estate cycle; Crisis analysis; Macroeconomic shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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