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Long-term cash flows of mandatory and voluntary pension funds in Croatia and their impact on asset allocation

Author

Listed:
  • Eva Horvat

    (Raiffeisen Mandatory and Voluntary Pension Funds Management Company Plc, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Mladen Latkovic

    (Raiffeisen Mandatory and Voluntary Pension Funds Management Company Plc, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse expected liquidity driven changes in asset allocation of Croatian mandatory and voluntary pension funds based on long-term cash flow projections. For mandatory pension funds, expected long-term cash flow are simulated taking into account the life-cycle scheme, changes in the default fund for undecisive newcomers, expected returns of funds and certain demographic and economic assumptions. Analogously, cash flow simulations of voluntary pension funds are simulated, with an additional scenario of short-term outflows due to the possibility of withdrawing earlier. The growing need for liquidity of pension funds is expected to impact their asset allocations through the endeavour for more liquid portfolios even in a baseline scenario. In the case of more severe assumptions of various parameters of the model, the liquidity-driven reallocation is expected to influence long-term returns of pension funds that experience negative or low net inflows, and subsequently lead to negative liquidity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Horvat & Mladen Latkovic, 2021. "Long-term cash flows of mandatory and voluntary pension funds in Croatia and their impact on asset allocation," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 229-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:45:y:2021:i:2:p:229-255
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.2.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaniv Azoulay & Andrey Kudryavtsev & Shosh Shahrabani, 2016. "Accumulating approach to the life-cycle pension model: practical advantages," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 413-436.
    2. Pierre Matek & Marko Lukač & Vedrana Repač, 2015. "Performance appraisal of Croatian mandatory pension funds," Effectus - Working Paper Series 0004, Effectus - University College for Law and Finance.
    3. Andrey Kudryavtsev & Shosh Shahrabani & Yaniv Azoulay, 2017. "Frequency of Adjusting Asset Allocations in the Life-Cycle Pension Model: When Doing More Is Not Necessarily Better," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 13-33.
    4. Petar-Pierre Matek & Masa Radakovic, 2015. "Is active management of mandatory pension funds in Croatia creating value for second pillar fund members?," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 245-278.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension funds; defined contribution system; life-cycle investing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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