IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ipf/finteo/v34y2010i2p143-160.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics

Author

Listed:
  • Kingsley I. Obiora

    (International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC)

Abstract

How do countries respond to shocks from their major trading partners? This paper addresses the question in the context of the observed shifts in trade linkages between the Baltic countries and their major trading partners. Vector autoregression (VAR) models were used to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well as shocks from the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics, with spillovers from the EU outweighing those from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this effect rises over time. We also find that financial and trade linkages are the dominant transmission channels of spillovers to the region, which explains the current realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown. In general, therefore, these results suggest that the Baltics are susceptible to shocks from their key trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Kingsley I. Obiora, 2010. "Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 143-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:143-160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2010/2/obiora.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    2. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & João Valle E Azevedo, 2008. "Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 23-51, February.
    4. Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2008/023, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    6. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    8. Alicia García-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0810, Banco de España.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    10. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, September.
    11. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    12. Arora, Vivek & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2006. "The Impact of U.S. Economic Growth on the Rest of the World: How Much Does It Matter?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 21-39.
    13. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    14. Vladimir Klyuev, 2010. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages:The Case of Canada and the United States," 2010 Meeting Papers 1199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Mr. Marco Pani & Mr. Etibar Jafarov & Mr. Clinton R. Shiells, 2005. "Is Russia Still Driving Regional Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2005/192, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Yan M Sun & Mr. Frigyes F Heinz & Giang Ho, 2013. "Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/194, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/125, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 1(2), June.
    3. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    5. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Krzysztof Beck, 2021. "Capital mobility and the synchronization of business cycles: Evidence from the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1065-1079, September.
    7. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    8. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    9. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    10. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    11. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    12. Miankhel, Adil Khan & Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2010. "Integration, decoupling and the global financial crisis: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 22837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2011:i:075 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    15. E. Monnet & D. Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," Working papers 592, Banque de France.
    16. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
    17. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    18. Kappler Marcus, 2011. "Business Cycle Co-movement and Trade Intensity in the Euro Area: is there a Dynamic Link?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(2), pages 247-265, April.
    19. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Exploring CESEE-EMU Synchronisation Patterns," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 255-255, May.
    20. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    21. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:143-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martina Fabris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ijfffhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.