IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ortrsc/v5y1971i1p79-90.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Utility Model for Travel Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas F. Golob

    (General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan)

  • Martin J. Beckmann

    (Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island)

Abstract

This paper shows how the problem of predicting traveler behavior may be approached in terms of economic utility theory. A general utility maximization model on the level of individual trip-making decisions is developed from basic hypotheses regarding the costs and benefits attributed to travel disaggregated into individual trips. For predictive purposes the form of the utility functions involved must be specified, and several possibilities are explored. The functional forms of the resulting travel demand functions are then derived. In order to pursue an analysis of variations in traveler behavior and in order to perform aggregation over individuals, disturbances in the parameters of the utility functions are considered. The parameters investigated are marginal utilities and the distributions used are normal distributions. In considering binary choices, a trip demand model, a modal split model, and a destination split model are obtained from the same basic methodology. Finally, possible approaches to testing the functional relations involved and to measuring marginal utilities are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas F. Golob & Martin J. Beckmann, 1971. "A Utility Model for Travel Forecasting," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 79-90, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:5:y:1971:i:1:p:79-90
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.5.1.79
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.5.1.79
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/trsc.5.1.79?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paas, Tiiu, 2002. "Gravity Approach for Exploring Baltic Sea Regional Integration in the Field of International Trade," Discussion Paper Series 26379, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    2. Lin, Ting (Grace) & Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Robinson, Todd P. & Goulias, Konstadinos G. & Church, Richard L. & Olaru, Doina & Tapin, John & Han, Renlong, 2014. "Spatial analysis of access to and accessibility surrounding train stations: a case study of accessibility for the elderly in Perth, Western Australia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 111-120.
    3. Neoh, Jun Guan & Chipulu, Maxwell & Marshall, Alasdair & Tewkesbury, Adam, 2018. "How commuters’ motivations to drive relate to propensity to carpool: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 128-148.
    4. James B. Kau & C.F. Sirmans, 1979. "The Functional Form of the Gravity Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 127-136, December.
    5. Wang, Fahui & Guldmann, Jean-Michel, 1996. "Simulating urban population density with a gravity-based model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 245-256, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:5:y:1971:i:1:p:79-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.