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On Driver Anticipation, Two-Regime Flow, Fundamental Diagrams, and Kinematic-Wave Theory

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  • Paul Nelson

    (Department of Computer Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3112)

Abstract

The Cellular Automata (CA) Model CA-184a is introduced as a simplified traffic model that incorporates a rudimentary representation of driver anticipation. Simulations of single-loop and dual-loop acquisition of density-flow data upstream of a bottleneck are shown to display either a considerable similarity to density-flow data commonly so observed in vehicular traffic (i.e., two-regime flow, including an “inverted-lambda” shape), or a well-defined but clearly unrealistic density-flow relationship (fundamental diagram, FD), depending sensitively on the details of how the data are acquired. Simulation on a closed loop leads to stationary equilibria that provide a well-defined FD that is not manifestly unrealistic. The kinematic-wave model (KWM), employed with this closed-loop stationary equilibrium FD, provides results that agree arguably well, with some caveats, with the time-series data (upstream of the bottleneck) that generated the two-regime inverted-lambda FD. The source of the sensitivity of density-flow data to details of data acquisition is a strong correlation, in enqueued flow, between observed speeds and position relative to the bottleneck. This correlation, along with demand fluctuations near saturation, accounts for the departure from kinematic-wave predictions of simulated loop-based density-flow observations upstream of a bottleneck.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Nelson, 2006. "On Driver Anticipation, Two-Regime Flow, Fundamental Diagrams, and Kinematic-Wave Theory," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 165-178, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:165-178
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.1060.0149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sun, Yi, 2020. "Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of bi-direction pedestrian flow with different walk speeds," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    3. Sun, Yi, 2018. "Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of two-dimensional pedestrian flow models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 836-847.

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