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A Discrete Markov Model of Vehicular Traffic

Author

Listed:
  • Michael C. Dunne

    (General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan)

  • Richard W. Rothery

    (General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan)

  • Renfrey B. Potts

    (University of California, Berkeley, California)

Abstract

For a number of years the Poisson process has been used as a model to describe the time series of events of vehicles passing a point on a roadway. In its simplest form the Poisson model does not take into account the finite size of the vehicles nor does it properly describe the characteristic bunching of traffic that commonly occurs, for example, on a two-lane road when passing is hindered. To give a more comprehensive description of traffic, various extensions of the Poisson model and a variety of other models have been proposed, with varying success. In this paper a discrete Markov model of traffic is proposed. The model is an extension of the simple binomial model and accounts for the bunching tendency of traffic by assuming correlations between successive vehicles. A description is given of the time-arrival experiments that were carried out to test the model and the statistical analysis of the results of these experiments is discussed. In addition, several theoretical aspects of the model are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael C. Dunne & Richard W. Rothery & Renfrey B. Potts, 1968. "A Discrete Markov Model of Vehicular Traffic," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 233-251, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:2:y:1968:i:3:p:233-251
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2.3.233
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Baibing, 2017. "Stochastic modeling for vehicle platoons (II): Statistical characteristics," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 378-393.
    2. Archilla, Ricardo & Morrall, John, 1996. "Traffic characteristics on two-lane highway downgrades," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 119-133, March.
    3. Li, Baibing, 2017. "Stochastic modeling for vehicle platoons (I): Dynamic grouping behavior and online platoon recognition," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 364-377.

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