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Stochastic Properties of Peak Short-Time Traffic Counts

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  • Gordon F. Newell

    (Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering, University of California, Richmond, California)

Abstract

Traffic flow past a point varies with time owing partly to statistical fluctuations and partly to a variation in the mean. Highway traffic surveys frequently include as a measure of this variation, peak short-time flows (1-, 5-, or 15-min flows) during a longer time (15, 30, or 60 min). Near the peak of the rush hour, the expected flow should be nearly stationary and variation in short-time flows should be due mostly to statistical fluctuations. This paper describes methods for estimation of these peak flows under the assumption that the short-time flows are approximately a stationary Gaussian process with a variance-to-mean ratio of about 1. The theory suggests that one can predict the distribution of peak short-time flows (5-min flows, for example) from the peak long-time flows (15 or 30 min flows). Experimental data seem to confirm this. The implication is that these short-time peaks have no obvious relation to highway capacity beyond that already inferred from the longer-time flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon F. Newell, 1967. "Stochastic Properties of Peak Short-Time Traffic Counts," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 167-183, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:1:y:1967:i:3:p:167-183
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.1.3.167
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