Author
Listed:
- William E. Billion
(Research Analysis Corporation, McLean, Virginia)
- Lawrence G. Regan
(Research Analysis Corporation, McLean, Virginia)
Abstract
Recent developments in aircraft technology will create greater airlift capabilities at lower costs. How will this increased capability be effectively utilized by the Department of Defense? Time-series extrapolations of air-cargo demand have been made in the past for the civil sector of our economy and similar projections have been proposed for military airlift planning. These proved less than successful when compared with actual tonnages generated. This paper will explore a different methodology for predicting airlift demand in the military establishment. Basic data, consisting of approximately 3.8 million commodities and millions of shipments recorded on magnetic automatic data processing tapes, are obtained from all DOD supply management activities. Two information files are established. One is a catalogue file reflecting the physical characteristics (weight, cube, price, etc.) of the commodities that influence total distribution costs of delivering the items to overseas destinations. The second is a demandfile containing the actual volume and traffic flow of the commodities. From these files, total distribution costs for air and surface movement are computed by a mathematical model for each commodity to determine the break-even air rate. The economically air-eligible commodities are then correlated with the volume and traffic flow to determine the elasticity of demand at various air ton-mile rates. Based on known operating costs of new aircraft, logical requirements for airlift can be established. At the same time, criteria for selecting air-eligible commodities are based on economic considerations, thus producing the least-cost method of supplying overseas activities.
Suggested Citation
William E. Billion & Lawrence G. Regan, 1967.
"A Methodology for Accurately Predicting Demand for Airlift of Military Cargo to Overseas Destinations,"
Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 158-166, August.
Handle:
RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:1:y:1967:i:3:p:158-166
DOI: 10.1287/trsc.1.3.158
Download full text from publisher
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:1:y:1967:i:3:p:158-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.