IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ortrsc/v13y1979i4p315-324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stochastic Model for the Temporal Distribution of Traffic Demand---The Peak Hour Problem

Author

Listed:
  • Attahiru Sule Alfa

    (University of New South Wales, Australia)

  • Do Le Minh

    (New South Wales Institute of Technology, Australia)

Abstract

One of the suggested techniques for reducing peak period traffic congestion is to flex work hours. If one is to predict the effect this work hour change shall have on the congestion, it is essential to understand how the peak traffic demand develops. However, there seem to be no existing theories explaining this process. In this paper, therefore, a mechanism by which commuters select their departure time from home is suggested and, based on this, a method is proposed for predicting the temporal distribution of traffic demand during the peak period. This should lead to the understanding of the effects of flexed work hours on the congestion. The model developed in this paper is based on the assumption that the commuters wish to arrive at work at a particular time without being delayed for too long in the system. A commuter therefore attaches cost to delays and also to early and late arrivals at work. This model proposes an iterative procedure by which to obtain the distribution of a commuter’s departure time from home, assuming that he tries to minimize the total cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Attahiru Sule Alfa & Do Le Minh, 1979. "A Stochastic Model for the Temporal Distribution of Traffic Demand---The Peak Hour Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 315-324, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:13:y:1979:i:4:p:315-324
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.13.4.315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.13.4.315
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/trsc.13.4.315?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Arnott, 1986. "Information and Time-Of-Use Decisions in Stochastically Congestable Facilities," Discussion Papers 788, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    2. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    3. Watling, David, 1996. "Asymmetric problems and stochastic process models of traffic assignment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 339-357, October.
    4. Liu, Ronghui & Van Vliet, Dirck & Watling, David, 2006. "Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 125-150, February.
    5. Watling, David, 1999. "Stability of the stochastic equilibrium assignment problem: a dynamical systems approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 281-312, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:13:y:1979:i:4:p:315-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.