IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v9y1961i3p341-348.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Activity Subdivision and PERT Probability Statements

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas L. Healy

    (Office of the Deputy Commander AFSC for Aerospace Systems, Los Angeles, California)

Abstract

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) has been developed and implemented as a technique for planning and evaluating the progress of research and development programs. Probability theory is used in PERT to calculate a measure of the uncertainty in meeting scheduled dates. These computed probabilities can then be used by managers to aid their judgment in evaluating the validity of schedules for accomplishing program objectives. This paper investigates the effect of subdividing activities in PERT flow diagrams on computed probabilities for meeting scheduled dates. It is shown that the mechanics of activity subdivision can increase or decrease the computed probabilities, depending upon whether the scheduled date for an event is later or earlier in time than the expected date. Management personnel who are using PERT probabilities to aid their judgment in evaluating schedules should be aware of the potential biases inherent in the computation of probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas L. Healy, 1961. "Activity Subdivision and PERT Probability Statements," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 341-348, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:9:y:1961:i:3:p:341-348
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.9.3.341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.9.3.341
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.9.3.341?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:9:y:1961:i:3:p:341-348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.