IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v59y2011i5p1106-1118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wait-Time Predictors for Customer Service Systems with Time-Varying Demand and Capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Rouba Ibrahim

    (Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5, Canada)

  • Ward Whitt

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Abstract

We develop new, improved real-time delay predictors for many-server service systems with a time-varying arrival rate, a time-varying number of servers, and customer abandonment. We develop four new predictors, two of which exploit an established deterministic fluid approximation for a many-server queueing model with those features. These delay predictors can be used to make delay announcements. We use computer simulation to show that the proposed predictors outperform previous predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2011. "Wait-Time Predictors for Customer Service Systems with Time-Varying Demand and Capacity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1106-1118, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:59:y:2011:i:5:p:1106-1118
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1110.0974
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.1110.0974
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.1110.0974?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ward Whitt, 2005. "Engineering Solution of a Basic Call-Center Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 221-235, February.
    2. Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2009. "Real-Time Delay Estimation Based on Delay History," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 397-415, May.
    3. Mor Armony & Constantinos Maglaras, 2004. "Contact Centers with a Call-Back Option and Real-Time Delay Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 527-545, August.
    4. Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2009. "Real-Time Delay Estimation in Overloaded Multiserver Queues with Abandonments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(10), pages 1729-1742, October.
    5. Lawrence Brown & Noah Gans & Avishai Mandelbaum & Anat Sakov & Haipeng Shen & Sergey Zeltyn & Linda Zhao, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of a Telephone Call Center: A Queueing-Science Perspective," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 36-50, March.
    6. Zohar Feldman & Avishai Mandelbaum & William A. Massey & Ward Whitt, 2008. "Staffing of Time-Varying Queues to Achieve Time-Stable Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 324-338, February.
    7. Pengfei Guo & Paul Zipkin, 2007. "Analysis and Comparison of Queues with Different Levels of Delay Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 962-970, June.
    8. Oualid Jouini & Zeynep Akşin & Yves Dallery, 2011. "Call Centers with Delay Information: Models and Insights," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 534-548, October.
    9. Ward Whitt, 1999. "Improving Service by Informing Customers About Anticipated Delays," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 192-207, February.
    10. Oualid Jouini & Zeynep Aksin & Yves Dallery, 2011. "Call Centers with Delay Information: Models and Insights," Post-Print hal-00680769, HAL.
    11. Mor Armony & Nahum Shimkin & Ward Whitt, 2009. "The Impact of Delay Announcements in Many-Server Queues with Abandonment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 66-81, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colm Crowley & Steven Guitron & Joseph Son & Oleg S Pianykh, 2020. "Modeling workflows: Identifying the most predictive features in healthcare operational processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Siddharth Prakash Singh & Mohammad Delasay & Alan Scheller‐Wolf, 2023. "Real‐time delay announcement under competition," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 863-881, March.
    3. Freek Verdonck & Herwig Bruneel & Sabine Wittevrongel, 2021. "Delay in a 2-State Discrete-Time Queue with Stochastic State-Period Lengths and State-Dependent Server Availability and Arrivals," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Miao Yu & Yu Zhao & Chunguang Chang & Liangliang Sun, 2023. "Fluid models for customer service web chat systems with interactive automated service," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 572-598, June.
    5. Noa Zychlinski, 2023. "Applications of fluid models in service operations management," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 103(1), pages 161-185, February.
    6. Morgan, Lucy E. & Barton, Russell R., 2022. "Fourier trajectory analysis for system discrimination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 203-217.
    7. Fabian Schéele & Darek M. Haftor & Natallia Pashkevich, 2022. "Predicting delays in service operations," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 16(2), pages 211-226, June.
    8. Najiya Fatma & Varun Ramamohan, 2023. "Patient diversion using real-time delay predictions across healthcare facility networks," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 437-476, June.
    9. Yina Lu & Andrés Musalem & Marcelo Olivares & Ariel Schilkrut, 2013. "Measuring the Effect of Queues on Customer Purchases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1743-1763, August.
    10. Azam Asanjarani & Yoni Nazarathy & Peter Taylor, 2021. "A survey of parameter and state estimation in queues," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 39-80, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miao Yu & Yu Zhao & Chunguang Chang & Liangliang Sun, 2023. "Fluid models for customer service web chat systems with interactive automated service," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 572-598, June.
    2. Zeynep Akşin & Baris Ata & Seyed Morteza Emadi & Che-Lin Su, 2017. "Impact of Delay Announcements in Call Centers: An Empirical Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 242-265, February.
    3. Lu, Yuwei & Xie, Xiaolan & Jiang, Zhibin, 2018. "Dynamic appointment scheduling with wait-dependent abandonment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 975-984.
    4. Oualid Jouini & Zeynep Akşin & Yves Dallery, 2011. "Call Centers with Delay Information: Models and Insights," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 534-548, October.
    5. Zeynep Akşin & Barış Ata & Seyed Morteza Emadi & Che-Lin Su, 2013. "Structural Estimation of Callers' Delay Sensitivity in Call Centers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(12), pages 2727-2746, December.
    6. Rouba Ibrahim, 2018. "Sharing delay information in service systems: a literature survey," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 49-79, June.
    7. Guo, Pengfei & Sun, Wei & Wang, Yulan, 2011. "Equilibrium and optimal strategies to join a queue with partial information on service times," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 284-297, October.
    8. Jamol Pender & Richard Rand & Elizabeth Wesson, 2020. "A Stochastic Analysis of Queues with Customer Choice and Delayed Information," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 1104-1126, August.
    9. Qiuping Yu & Gad Allon & Achal Bassamboo, 2021. "The Reference Effect of Delay Announcements: A Field Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7417-7437, December.
    10. Rouba Ibrahim & Mor Armony & Achal Bassamboo, 2017. "Does the Past Predict the Future? The Case of Delay Announcements in Service Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1762-1780, June.
    11. Qiuping Yu & Gad Allon & Achal Bassamboo & Seyed Iravani, 2018. "Managing Customer Expectations and Priorities in Service Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3942-3970, August.
    12. Siddharth Prakash Singh & Mohammad Delasay & Alan Scheller‐Wolf, 2023. "Real‐time delay announcement under competition," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 863-881, March.
    13. Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2009. "Real-Time Delay Estimation in Overloaded Multiserver Queues with Abandonments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(10), pages 1729-1742, October.
    14. Najiya Fatma & Varun Ramamohan, 2023. "Patient diversion using real-time delay predictions across healthcare facility networks," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 437-476, June.
    15. Robert J. Batt & Christian Terwiesch, 2015. "Waiting Patiently: An Empirical Study of Queue Abandonment in an Emergency Department," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 39-59, January.
    16. Odysseas Kanavetas & Barış Balcıog̃lu, 2022. "The “Sensitive” Markovian queueing system and its application for a call center problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 317(2), pages 651-664, October.
    17. Qiuping Yu & Gad Allon & Achal Bassamboo, 2017. "How Do Delay Announcements Shape Customer Behavior? An Empirical Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 1-20, January.
    18. Erjie Ang & Sara Kwasnick & Mohsen Bayati & Erica L. Plambeck & Michael Aratow, 2016. "Accurate Emergency Department Wait Time Prediction," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 141-156, February.
    19. Colm Crowley & Steven Guitron & Joseph Son & Oleg S Pianykh, 2020. "Modeling workflows: Identifying the most predictive features in healthcare operational processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, June.
    20. Gad Allon & Achal Bassamboo, 2011. "The Impact of Delaying the Delay Announcements," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1198-1210, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:59:y:2011:i:5:p:1106-1118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.