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A Simulation Model for Predicting Yacht Match Race Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • A. B. Philpott

    (Department of Engineering, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1020, New Zealand)

  • S. G. Henderson

    (School of Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853)

  • D. Teirney

    (Orion Systems NZ Limited, Auckland, New Zealand)

Abstract

We outline the development of a model for predicting the outcome of a yacht match race between two competing designs. The model is a fixed-time-increment simulation that accounts for the dynamic performance of each yacht. The wind speed and direction are modelled using hidden Markov chain models. Each yacht is assumed to follow a fixed sailing strategy determined by a set of simple decision rules. The simulation models both yachts simultaneously and accounts for interactions between them---for example, when they cross. The model is illustrated by applying it to International America's Cup Class designs.

Suggested Citation

  • A. B. Philpott & S. G. Henderson & D. Teirney, 2004. "A Simulation Model for Predicting Yacht Match Race Outcomes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 1-16, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:52:y:2004:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1030.0078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philpott, A. B. & Sullivan, R. M. & Jackson, P. S., 1993. "Yacht velocity prediction using mathematical programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 13-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacek Tarnas & Nina Schaffert & Helena Elegańczyk-Kot & Leszek Kostański & Rafał Stemplewski, 2020. "Intra- and Inter-Device Reliability of the Change-of-Direction Angles Using a Smartphone Application for Sailing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-7, May.
    2. M B Wright, 2009. "50 years of OR in sport," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 161-168, May.
    3. Cacace, S. & Ferretti, R. & Festa, A., 2020. "Stochastic hybrid differential games and match race problems," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).

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