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Model Formulation: What Experts Think About and When

Author

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  • Thomas R. Willemain

    (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York)

Abstract

Model formulation is a critical craft skill that deserves more attention from OR practitioners and educators. As a step toward understanding how experts formulate OR models, I conducted an experiment in which twelve skilled analysts generated think-aloud protocols while working model formulation exercises 60 minutes long. The coded transcripts tracked the modelers' attention to five topics corresponding to stages in the usual OR paradigm: problem context and model structure, realization, assessment, and implementation. Analysis of the transcripts yielded these conclusions: topics other than structure attracted a significant proportion of modelers' attention; modelers frequently switched their attention among the topics; the switching was usually an alternation between structure and the other topics, especially assessment; on average, the modelers progressed through the topics in the given order; there was limited support for the notion of modeler-specific and problem-specific effects influencing the attention given to each topic; and there was support for the idea of individual modeling styles.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Willemain, 1995. "Model Formulation: What Experts Think About and When," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 916-932, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:43:y:1995:i:6:p:916-932
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.43.6.916
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Franco, L. Alberto & Hämäläinen, Raimo P., 2016. "Behavioural operational research: Returning to the roots of the OR profession," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 791-795.
    2. Tako, Antuela A. & Robinson, Stewart, 2010. "Model development in discrete-event simulation and system dynamics: An empirical study of expert modellers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 784-794, December.
    3. Keys, Paul, 2000. "Creativity, design and style in MS/OR," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 303-312, June.
    4. Merrick, James H. & Weyant, John P., 2019. "On choosing the resolution of normative models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 511-523.
    5. repec:dgr:rugsom:04a03 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Frederic H. Murphy, 2005. "ASP, The Art and Science of Practice: Elements of a Theory of the Practice of Operations Research: Expertise in Practice," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 313-322, August.
    7. S G Powell & T R Willemain, 2007. "How novices formulate models. Part I: qualitative insights and implications for teaching," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(8), pages 983-995, August.
    8. L B Waisel & W A Wallace & T R Willemain, 2008. "Visualization and model formulation: an analysis of the sketches of expert modellers," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(3), pages 353-361, March.
    9. Franco, L. Alberto & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A. & Leppänen, Ilkka, 2021. "Taking stock of behavioural OR: A review of behavioural studies with an intervention focus," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 401-418.
    10. O'Keefe, Robert M., 2016. "Experimental behavioural research in operational research: What we know and what we might come to know," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 899-907.
    11. P Keys, 2006. "On becoming expert in the use of problem structuring methods," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(7), pages 822-829, July.
    12. Boonstra, Albert, 2004. "An empirical taxonomy of IS decision-making processes," Research Report 04A03, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    13. S Robinson, 2008. "Conceptual modelling for simulation Part I: definition and requirements," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(3), pages 278-290, March.
    14. Mike Chiasson & Robert Fildes & Mike Pidd, 2006. "Intelligent thinking instead of critical realism?," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(11), pages 1373-1375, November.
    15. Michael Pidd, 1999. "Just Modeling Through: A Rough Guide to Modeling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 118-132, April.
    16. Zichong Lyu & Dirk Pons & Yilei Zhang & Zuzhen Ji, 2022. "Minimum Viable Model (MVM) Methodology for Integration of Agile Methods into Operational Simulation of Logistics," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, June.
    17. John Mingers, 2006. "Response from the author: Intelligence and realism in OR," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(11), pages 1375-1379, November.
    18. T R Willemain & S G Powell, 2007. "How novices formulate models. Part II: a quantitative description of behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1271-1283, October.
    19. Beroggi, Giampiero E. G., 2001. "Visual-interactive decision modeling (VIDEMO) in policy management: Bridging the gap between analytic and conceptual decision modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 338-350, January.

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