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Using Judgment in Resource Management: A Multiple Objective Analysis of a Fisheries Management Decision

Author

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  • Timothy L. McDaniels

    (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada)

Abstract

This paper uses multiple objective decision analysis to conduct an ex post analysis of a specific fisheries management decision involving conflicting long-term objectives for mixed stocks. The paper illustrates the potential role of subjective judgment in fisheries and other resource management contexts and the relevance of decision analysis for in-season salmon management. The decision context is first defined in terms of objectives and alternatives, then subjective probability distributions are elicited from experts regarding uncertain biological parameters. A simulation is then used to estimate the consequences of alternative openings, given the biological uncertainties. A utility function is elicited from a fisheries manager and used to select among alternative commercial fishery openings. The results show that objectives other than those typically assumed in fisheries modeling, and subjective judgments by technical experts, can be important for in-season salmon management. The results also show that, in this application, the equivalent of nearly $8 million in potential benefits are available from delaying the opening of the commercial fishery by a single day.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy L. McDaniels, 1995. "Using Judgment in Resource Management: A Multiple Objective Analysis of a Fisheries Management Decision," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 415-426, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:43:y:1995:i:3:p:415-426
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.43.3.415
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy McDaniels, 2021. "Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 491-502, March.
    2. Aurobrata Das & Bhabagrahi Sahoo & Sudhindra N. Panda, 2020. "Evaluation of Nexus-Sustainability and Conventional Approaches for Optimal Water-Energy-Land-Crop Planning in an Irrigated Canal Command," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2329-2351, June.
    3. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    4. Timothy McDaniels & Tamsin Mills & Robin Gregory & Dan Ohlson, 2012. "Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2098-2112, December.
    5. I. Linkov & F. K. Satterstrom & G. Kiker & T. P. Seager & T. Bridges & K. H. Gardner & S. H. Rogers & D. A. Belluck & A. Meyer, 2006. "Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Comprehensive Decision Approach for Management of Contaminated Sediments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 61-78, February.
    6. Peter P. Wakker & Sylvia J. T. Jansen & Anne M. Stiggelbout, 2004. "Anchor Levels as a New Tool for the Theory and Measurement of Multiattribute Utility," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(4), pages 217-234, December.
    7. L. Robin Keller & Craig W. Kirkwood & Nancy S. Jones, 2010. "Assessing stakeholder evaluation concerns: An application to the Central Arizona water resources system," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 58-71, March.
    8. A. Procter & T. McDaniels & R. Vignola, 2017. "Using expert judgments to inform economic evaluation of ecosystem-based adaptation decisions: watershed management for enhancing water supply for Tegucigalpa, Honduras," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 410-422, December.

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