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An Assessment of the Risk of Chronic Lung Injury Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure

Author

Listed:
  • Robert L. Winkler

    (Duke University, Durham, North Carolina)

  • Thomas S. Wallsten

    (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina)

  • Ronald G. Whitfield

    (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois)

  • Harvey M. Richmond

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina)

  • Stanley R. Hayes

    (Environ Corporation, Emeryville, California)

  • Arlene S. Rosenbaum

    (Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael, California)

Abstract

This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding experts’ probabilistic judgments. The objective is to characterize scientific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children aged 8 through 16 and to adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone exposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in Southern California and the Northeast. Our measure of injury is the incidence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the lung. Probabilities over population response rates were elicited from six health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We describe our approach, present some judgmental probability distributions over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone, summarize some qualitative results, and offer some concluding comments.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert L. Winkler & Thomas S. Wallsten & Ronald G. Whitfield & Harvey M. Richmond & Stanley R. Hayes & Arlene S. Rosenbaum, 1995. "An Assessment of the Risk of Chronic Lung Injury Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 19-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:43:y:1995:i:1:p:19-28
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.43.1.19
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert T. Clemen & Gregory W. Fischer & Robert L. Winkler, 2000. "Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1100-1115, August.
    2. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
    3. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
    4. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    5. Robert J. Budnitz & George Apostolakis & David M. Boore & Lloyd S. Cluff & Kevin J. Coppersmith & C. Allin Cornell & Peter A. Morris, 1998. "Use of Technical Expert Panels: Applications to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 463-469, August.
    6. Robert L. Winkler, 2015. "The Importance of Communicating Uncertainties in Forecasts: Overestimating the Risks from Winter Storm Juno," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 349-353, March.

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