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How Many Forecasters Do You Really Have? Mahalanobis Provides the Intuition for the Surprising Clemen and Winkler Result

Author

Listed:
  • Donald G. Morrison

    (University of California, Los Angeles, California)

  • David C. Schmittlein

    (University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

Abstract

How to combine expert opinions is an issue that has many aspects and even more “answers.” The problem addressed here is the incremental information an additional expert brings when he or she is correlated with the existing experts. R. T. Clemen and R. L. Winkler derive an algebraic formula that gives the surprising answer—usually very little. In this paper, we provide the geometrical intuition behind the Clemen and Winkler result. We also show how the Clemen and Winkler formula breaks down (i.e., gives bizarre results) as the error covariance structure approaches singularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald G. Morrison & David C. Schmittlein, 1991. "How Many Forecasters Do You Really Have? Mahalanobis Provides the Intuition for the Surprising Clemen and Winkler Result," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 519-523, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:39:y:1991:i:3:p:519-523
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.39.3.519
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    Cited by:

    1. Mukhopadhyay, Samar K. & Yue, Xiaohang & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2011. "A Stackelberg model of pricing of complementary goods under information asymmetry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 424-433, December.
    2. Jones, Christopher S. & Finn, John M. & Hengartner, Nicolas, 2008. "Regression with strongly correlated data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(9), pages 2136-2153, October.
    3. Zhiqiang Zheng & Balaji Padmanabhan, 2007. "Constructing Ensembles from Data Envelopment Analysis," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 486-496, November.
    4. Jagmohan S. Raju & Abhik Roy, 2000. "Market Information and Firm Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1075-1084, August.
    5. Yan, Ruiliang & Ghose, Sanjoy, 2010. "Forecast information and traditional retailer performance in a dual-channel competitive market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 77-83, January.

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