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Prison Populations: A Projection Model

Author

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  • Arnold Barnett

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts)

Abstract

We propose a method for estimating prison populations under a variety of assumptions about sentencing policy and demographic structure. The approach builds on a familiar stochastic model of the individual criminal career. After a validation exercise involving Pennsylvania data, we use the model to make illustrative projections about Massachusetts, Utah and Florida. The results suggest that, while prison populations might stabilize everywhere during the early 1990s, only rarely will this situation signify an end to the growth in prison-capacity requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Barnett, 1987. "Prison Populations: A Projection Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 18-34, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:35:y:1987:i:1:p:18-34
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.35.1.18
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P G Hancock & R Raeside, 2010. "Analysing communication in a complex service process: an application of social network analysis in the Scottish Prison Service," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(2), pages 265-274, February.
    2. Lattimore, Pamela K. & Baker, Joanna R., 1997. "Demand estimation with failure and capacity constraints: An application to prisons," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 418-431, November.
    3. Marvell, Thomas B. & Moody, Carlisle E., 1997. "Age-structure trends and prison populations," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 115-124.

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