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Using a Stochastic Model to Investigate Time to Absorption Distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Richard H. Shachtman

    (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina)

  • John R. Schoenfelder

    (Burroughs Wellcome Company, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina)

  • Carol J. Hogue

    (University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Arkansas)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that, after being tested for goodness of fit, Markov chain models may be used in epidemiological investigations to compute the time to absorption distributions useful in designing follow-up studies. Also illustrated is the use of these models to compare distinct cohorts with respect to stochastic movement among states. Using data from a historical prospective study conducted in Skopje, Yugoslavia, we employ a Markov chain model of women's reproductive paths to compare the stochastic behavior of first pregnancy aborters and first pregnancy deliverers. We estimate the time to next delivery distribution within each of these cohorts, constructs useful in determining the required sample size for future studies of the effects of induced abortion.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Shachtman & John R. Schoenfelder & Carol J. Hogue, 1981. "Using a Stochastic Model to Investigate Time to Absorption Distributions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 589-603, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:29:y:1981:i:3:p:589-603
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.29.3.589
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    Cited by:

    1. Côté, Murray J. & Stein, William E., 2000. "An Erlang-based stochastic model for patient flow," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 347-359, June.

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