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An Analysis of Baseball Batting Order by Monte Carlo Simulation

Author

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  • R. Allan Freeze

    (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada)

Abstract

A Monte Carlo simulation of over 200,000 baseball games, using a programmed embodiment of the main features of the Sports Illustrated baseball game, shows that batting order exerts only a small influence on the outcomes of baseball games. The effect of using the best batting order rather than the worst is less than three extra wins per 162-game season. The traditional lineup, wherein a team's strongest batters hit in the third through fifth positions, is superior to a lineup in which batters are arranged in decreasing order of productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Allan Freeze, 1974. "An Analysis of Baseball Batting Order by Monte Carlo Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 728-735, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:22:y:1974:i:4:p:728-735
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.22.4.728
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    Cited by:

    1. Baumer Ben S, 2009. "Using Simulation to Estimate the Impact of Baserunning Ability in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, May.
    2. M B Wright, 2009. "50 years of OR in sport," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 161-168, May.
    3. Collingwood, James A.P. & Wright, Michael & Brooks, Roger J., 2023. "Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1286-1299.
    4. J M Norman & S R Clarke, 2010. "Optimal batting orders in cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(6), pages 980-986, June.
    5. Mancini Simona & Isabello Andrea, 2014. "Fair referee assignment for the Italian soccer serieA," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 153-160, June.
    6. Simona Mancini, 2018. "Assignment of swimmers to events in a multi-team meeting for team global performance optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 264(1), pages 325-337, May.

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