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An Estimate of Expected Critical-Path Length in PERT Networks

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  • J. H. Lindsey

    (Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California, and Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois)

Abstract

The estimate of expected critical-path length in PERT networks in this paper is usually better than the F ulkerson estimate because of greater flexibility in choosing a path whose length approximates the length of the critical path. As the calculations are based on a model approximating the actual network, the new estimate may fall on either side of the expected critical path, even though the Fulkerson estimate never exceeded the expected critical-path length. A Fortran program was written to calculate the new estimate, whose calculation is more complicated man Fulkerson's estimate. The new estimate, Fulkerson's estimate, and the expected critical-path length are compared in several examples.

Suggested Citation

  • J. H. Lindsey, 1972. "An Estimate of Expected Critical-Path Length in PERT Networks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 20(4), pages 800-812, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:20:y:1972:i:4:p:800-812
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.20.4.800
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhichao Zheng & Karthik Natarajan & Chung-Piaw Teo, 2016. "Least Squares Approximation to the Distribution of Project Completion Times with Gaussian Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1406-1421, December.

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