A Methodology to Compare Policies for Exploring the Solar System

This paper describes procedures to process part of the information affecting decisions about unmanned exploration of the solar system. Since direct iteration between analysts and several levels of decision makers is, at best, a slow process, we have attempted to design the results of the analysis so that such iteration will not be necessary. In particular, we have avoided attempting to encode decision makers' judgments of probabilities or relative worths, relying instead on the technical judgments of technical experts in their areas of competence. Specifically, the contributions of proposed sequences of unmanned missions toward achieving the primary scientific objectives of exploring the solar system are determined. Consideration of the relative worths of these objectives, however, is left to the decision makers. Risks and uncertainties are explicitly considered, and results are depicted by probability contours. The utilization of resources—funding and manpower—is estimated and displayed. However, decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of the information processed with these procedures. Hence, mission sequences that the procedures indicate are less than optimal are retained. Since portions of the scientific objectives may be fulfilled (or preempted) by the space exploration programs of other nations, several foreign space programs are assumed as background to provide further insight into the wisdom of alternative decisions.