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Forecasting Periodic Trends by Exponential Smoothing

Author

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  • James M. Dobbie

    (Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts)

Abstract

Some commodities are known to have periodic trends, through seasonal variations and other variations that are repetitive. In forecasting these trends it is desirable to use a set of periodic functions. A method is obtained for the computation of the required coefficients in exponential smoothing when the set of fitting functions consists of a finite number of sine and cosine functions, or such functions multiplied by exponential functions. Explicit expressions are derived for some particular cases.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Dobbie, 1963. "Forecasting Periodic Trends by Exponential Smoothing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(6), pages 908-918, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:11:y:1963:i:6:p:908-918
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.11.6.908
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Ledolter & G. Box, 1978. "Conditions for the optimality of exponential smoothing forecast procedures," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 77-93, December.

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