IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v11y1963i3p361-367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note on Exponential Smoothing and Autocorrelated Inputs

Author

Listed:
  • Gerald D. Cohen

    (Allied Chemical Corp., New York, New York)

Abstract

This paper considers the use of exponential smoothing to forecast time series which are compound processes containing both deterministic and random components. Recognition is given to the fact that modifications made in the simple smoothing formula to correct for one assumed component in the input series, such as a trend, interacts with the other series' components, and the total forecast error may be increased. The mean squared forecast error, using exponential smoothing, is compared when the random inputs are independently distributed and when they are autocorrelated. The latter case being commonly encountered in sales series. The characteristics of the smoothing procedure is examined when the input time series is geometrically autocorrelated and the range of values of the smoothing constant to minimize the forecast error is calculated.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald D. Cohen, 1963. "A Note on Exponential Smoothing and Autocorrelated Inputs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 361-367, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:11:y:1963:i:3:p:361-367
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.11.3.361
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.3.361
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.11.3.361?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:11:y:1963:i:3:p:361-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.