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Analytic Expressions for the Probability of Penetrating a Point Defense

Author

Listed:
  • Girard L. Ordway

    (Operations Research, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland)

  • Henry M. Rosenstock

    (Operations Research, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland)

Abstract

A method is developed for computing the probability that an air attack will penetrate a point defense made by a surface-to-air missile system. Analytic expressions are obtained from a model for the probability of penetration by at least one of k attackers, as a function of k and of the spacing between successive attackers, the number of shots that can be made at an approaching attacker, and the single-shot kill probability of the defensive missiles. The mean number of attackers required for penetration can be approximated very closely by a formula that is valid throughout the range of tactical interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Girard L. Ordway & Henry M. Rosenstock, 1963. "Analytic Expressions for the Probability of Penetrating a Point Defense," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 40-56, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:11:y:1963:i:1:p:40-56
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.11.1.40
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaehak Kim & Woosang Kim, 2021. "Simulation analysis on the effectiveness of missile defense," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 510-522, May.

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