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A Procedure for Revising Data-Based Priors in a Group

Author

Listed:
  • Shiri Alon

    (Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan 5290002, Israel)

  • Gabrielle Gayer

    (Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan 5290002, Israel)

Abstract

A group of individuals is interested in predicting the outcome of a current problem. Each individual has access to private data that are used to form a prior probability over possible outcomes. While individuals may be reluctant or unable to disclose their private data, they are willing to publish their priors. We characterize a procedure for revising the individuals’ prior probabilities based on the published priors of others and discuss its implications regarding the formation of a common prior in the group, both in the short and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiri Alon & Gabrielle Gayer, 2025. "A Procedure for Revising Data-Based Priors in a Group," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(2), pages 1737-1755, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:71:y:2025:i:2:p:1737-1755
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.02912
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