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Digesting FOREXS: Information Transmission Across Asset Classes and Return Predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Joon Woo Bae

    (Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio 44106)

  • Zhi Da

    (Mendoza College of Business, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556)

  • Virgilio Zurita

    (Hankamer School of Business, Baylor University, Waco, Texas 76706)

Abstract

We provide novel evidence that equity investors react to currency shocks with a delay. Using the cross-section of currency returns and the relative presence of U.S. firms in foreign economies, we compute a foreign operations-related exchange shock ( FOREXS ) measure. We find FOREXS to predict firms’ future cash flows and stock returns, driving much of the previously documented underreaction to foreign information. An FOREXS -based long-short strategy yields a 6.74% annualized abnormal return. FOREXS predictive power comes from firms’ incomplete hedging and investors’ limited attention, highlighting the challenges involved when processing information from a different asset class.

Suggested Citation

  • Joon Woo Bae & Zhi Da & Virgilio Zurita, 2024. "Digesting FOREXS: Information Transmission Across Asset Classes and Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(3), pages 1943-1969, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:70:y:2024:i:3:p:1943-1969
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4778
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