Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3859
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ang, Andrew & Liu, Jun & Schwarz, Krista, 2020. "Using Stocks or Portfolios in Tests of Factor Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 709-750, May.
- Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015.
"Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
- Gill Segal & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Good and Bad Uncertainty: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Implications," 2014 Meeting Papers 488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Irina Zviadadze, 2021.
"Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns [Stock returns and volatility: Pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk],"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 6032-6086.
- Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 13414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimiliano Croce, Mariano, 2014. "Long-run productivity risk: A new hope for production-based asset pricing?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-31.
- Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, August.
- Hui Chen & Winston Wei Dou & Leonid Kogan, 2024.
"Measuring “Dark Matter” in Asset Pricing Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(2), pages 843-902, April.
- Hui Chen & Winston Wei Dou & Leonid Kogan, 2019. "Measuring “Dark Matter” in Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 26418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kozak, Serhiy & Nagel, Stefan & Santosh, Shrihari, 2020.
"Shrinking the cross-section,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 271-292.
- Serhiy Kozak & Stefan Nagel & Shrihari Santosh, 2017. "Shrinking the Cross Section," NBER Working Papers 24070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nagel, Stefan & Santosh, Shrihari & Kozak, Serhiy, 2017. "Shrinking the Cross Section," CEPR Discussion Papers 12463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009.
"Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
- Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2006. "Expected stock returns and variance risk premia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hao & George Tauchen, 2008. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2008-48, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2007-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
- Tim A. Kroencke, 2017.
"Asset Pricing without Garbage,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 47-98, February.
- Kroencke, Tim A., 2013. "Asset pricing without garbage," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-071, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Kroencke, Tim Alexander, 2014. "Asset Pricing without Garbage," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100476, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013.
"Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
- Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 1987. "Substitution, Risk Aversion and the Temporal Behaviour of Consumption and Asset Returns I: A Theoretical Framework," Working Paper 699, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2011.
"Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies,"
Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 31-80.
- Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2009. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2010. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," Working Papers 10-34, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2009. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," Working Papers 10-73, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 2006.
"Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
- Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 2024. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," CEMA Working Papers 620, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
- John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999.
"Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Campbell, John & Cochrane, John H., 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2017.
"Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 713-760.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2015. "Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad-Environment Good-Environment Fundamentals," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jessica A. Wachter, 2013.
"Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
- Jessica Wachter, 2008. "Can time-varying risk of rare disasters explain aggregate stock market volatility?," 2008 Meeting Papers 944, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jessica Wachter, 2008. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," NBER Working Papers 14386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2010.
"Confidence Risk and Asset Prices,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 537-541, May.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 14815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jianjian Jin, 2015. "Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium, and Volatility Dynamics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1223-1279.
- Oliver Boguth & Lars‐Alexander Kuehn, 2013. "Consumption Volatility Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2589-2615, December.
- Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2014.
"Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 675-718, April.
- Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 17795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James L. Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2000.
"Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 389-406, February.
- James L. Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, "undated". "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997," CRSP working papers 359, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- James Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, "undated". "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929-1997," CRSP working papers 471, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- George Tauchen, 2011. "Stochastic Volatility in General Equilibrium," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 707-731.
- Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018.
"An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
- John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk & Robert Turley, 2012. "An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An Intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69634, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Campbell, John Y & Polk, Christopher & Giglio, Stefano & Turley, Robert, 2015. "An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 10681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005.
"Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
- Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2004. "Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Working Papers 138, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
- Boons, Martijn, 2016. "State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 489-511.
- Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
- Itamar Drechsler, 2013. "Uncertainty, Time-Varying Fear, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1843-1889, October.
- Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003.
"Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
- Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stambaugh, Robert F. & Pástor, Luboš, 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2016. "Dissecting Anomalies with a Five-Factor Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 69-103.
- Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
- Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
- Dittmar, Robert F. & Lundblad, Christian T., 2017. "Firm characteristics, consumption risk, and firm-level risk exposures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 326-343.
- Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
- Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2008. "An Equilibrium Guide To Designing Affine Pricing Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 519-543, October.
- Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
- Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Schlag, Christian & Semenischev, Michael & Thimme, Julian, 2020. "Predictability and the cross-section of expected returns: A challenge for asset pricing models," SAFE Working Paper Series 289, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
- Borup, Daniel & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2022. "Asset pricing with data revisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
- Huang, Darien & Kilic, Mete, 2019. "Gold, platinum, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 50-75.
- Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Tang, Yi, 2017. "Is economic uncertainty priced in the cross-section of stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 471-489.
- Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020.
"Dynamic Equity Slope,"
Working Papers
2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 626, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfe & Francesca Zucchi, 2024. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 713 JEL Classification: D, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Stefan Nagel, 2013.
"Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
- Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 18554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nagel, Stefan, 2012. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
- Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2013. "Tail Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 19375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
- Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Honarvar, Iman & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Does oil and gold price uncertainty matter for the stock market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-285.
- Barroso, Pedro & Boons, Martijn & Karehnke, Paul, 2021. "Time-varying state variable risk premia in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 428-451.
- Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Equilibrium variance risk premium in a cost-free production economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 42-60.
- Neuhierl, Andreas & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2021. "Frequency dependent risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 644-675.
- Kozak, Serhiy & Santosh, Shrihari, 2020. "Why do discount rates vary?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 740-751.
- Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
- Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2021. "The impact of hedging on risk-averse agents’ output decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
- Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
- Ruan, Xinfeng, 2021. "Ambiguity, long-run risks, and asset prices in continuous time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 115-126.
- Dittmar, Robert F. & Lundblad, Christian T., 2017. "Firm characteristics, consumption risk, and firm-level risk exposures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 326-343.
More about this item
Keywords
asset pricing; cross-section of stock returns; predictability;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:67:y:2021:i:12:p:7932-7950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.