IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v61y2015i10p2376-2393.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading as Gambling

Author

Listed:
  • Anne Jones Dorn

    (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Daniel Dorn

    (LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Paul Sengmueller

    (CentER, Tilburg University, 5037 AB Tilburg, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper offers evidence from three different samples consistent with investors substituting between playing the lottery and gambling in financial markets. In the United States, increases in the jackpots of the multistate lotteries Powerball and Mega Millions are associated with significant reductions in small trade participation in the stock market. California-based discount brokerage clients and German discount brokerage clients are significantly less likely to trade during weeks with larger lottery prizes in the California and German lotteries, respectively. Variation in lottery prizes affects speculative trading in more lottery-like securities such as individual stocks and options, but not trading in bonds and mutual funds. Trading that is likely associated with long-term savings motives, such as trading in retirement accounts, does not respond to lottery jackpots, either. The negative relation between trading activity and jackpots is stronger for individuals who are more likely to play the lottery. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Jones Dorn & Daniel Dorn & Paul Sengmueller, 2015. "Trading as Gambling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2376-2393, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:61:y:2015:i:10:p:2376-2393
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1979
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1979
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1979?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1537-1573, August.
    2. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "Recent trends in trading activity and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 243-263, August.
    3. Oster, Emily, 2004. "Are All Lotteries Regressive? Evidence From the Powerball," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 57(2), pages 179-187, June.
    4. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1989. "Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clot89-1.
    5. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    6. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    7. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
    8. Lakonishok, Josef & Maberly, Edwin, 1990. "The Weekend Effect: Trading Patterns of Individual and Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 231-243, March.
    9. Scott, Frank & Garen, John, 1994. "Probability of purchase, amount of purchase, and the demographic incidence of the lottery tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 121-143, May.
    10. Farrell, Lisa & Walker, Ian, 1999. "The welfare effects of lotto: evidence from the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 99-120, April.
    11. Maureen O'Hara & Chen Yao & Mao Ye, 2014. "What's Not There: Odd Lots and Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2199-2236, October.
    12. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2009. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 549-578, April.
    13. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    14. Lee, Charles M. C., 1992. "Earnings news and small traders : An intraday analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 265-302, August.
    15. Green, Richard C & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1997. "The Valuation of Nonsystematic Risks and the Pricing of Swedish Lottery Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 447-480.
    16. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    17. Daniel Dorn & Paul Sengmueller, 2009. "Trading as Entertainment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 591-603, April.
    18. T. Clifton Green & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2012. "Initial Public Offerings as Lotteries: Skewness Preference and First-Day Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 432-444, February.
    19. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    20. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    21. Battalio, Robert H. & Mendenhall, Richard R., 2005. "Earnings expectations, investor trade size, and anomalous returns around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 289-319, August.
    22. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joel Peress & Daniel Schmidt, 2020. "Glued to the TV: Distracted Noise Traders and Stock Market Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 1083-1133, April.
    2. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    4. Baginski, Stephen P. & Demers, Elizabeth & Kausar, Asad & Yu, Yingri Julia, 2018. "Linguistic tone and the small trader," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 21-37.
    5. Liu, Bibo & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2020. "Time-varying demand for lottery: Speculation ahead of earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 789-817.
    6. Stephan Meyer & Sebastian Schroff & Christof Weinhardt, 2014. "(Un)skilled leveraged trading of retail investors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 111-138, May.
    7. Ebert, Sebastian & Hilpert, Christian, 2019. "Skewness preference and the popularity of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Hur, Jungshik & Singh, Vivek, 2019. "How do disposition effect and anchoring bias interact to impact momentum in stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 238-256.
    9. Bui, Dien Giau & Chan, Yu-Ju & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2024. "Lottery jackpot winnings and retail trading in the neighborhood," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Shefrin, Hersh, 2014. "Technical analysis and individual investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 487-511.
    11. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2011. "Why Do (Some) Households Trade So Much?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1630-1666.
    13. Kormanyos, Emily & Hanspal, Tobin & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Do gamblers invest in lottery stocks?," SAFE Working Paper Series 373, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2023.
    14. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2023. "Social trading: do signal providers trigger gambling?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1269-1331, May.
    15. Ron Kaniel & Shuming Liu & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2012. "Individual Investor Trading and Return Patterns around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 639-680, April.
    16. Gus De Franco & Hai Lu & Florin P. Vasvari, 2007. "Wealth Transfer Effects of Analysts' Misleading Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 71-110, March.
    17. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2020. "Resolving the excessive trading puzzle: an integrated approach based on surveys and transactions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    19. Matthew Hood & John Nofsinger & Abhishek Varma, 2014. "Conservation, Discrimination, and Salvation: Investors’ Social Concerns in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 5-37, February.
    20. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:61:y:2015:i:10:p:2376-2393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.