IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v59y2013i5p1062-1075.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Groysberg

    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

  • Paul Healy

    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

  • George Serafeim

    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

  • Devin Shanthikumar

    (Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California 92697)

Abstract

Prior research on equity analysts focuses almost exclusively on those employed by sell-side investment banks and brokerage houses. Yet investment firms undertake their own buy-side research, and their analysts face different stock selection and recommendation incentives than their sell-side peers. We examine the selection and performance of stocks recommended by analysts at a large investment firm relative to those of sell-side analysts from mid-1997 to 2004. We find that the buy-side firm's analysts issue less optimistic recommendations for stocks with larger market capitalizations and lower return volatility than their sell-side peers, consistent with their facing fewer conflicts of interest and having a preference for liquid stocks. Tests with no controls for these effects indicate that annualized buy-side strong buy/buy recommendations underperform those for sell-side peers by 5.9% using market-adjusted returns and by 3.8% using four-factor model abnormal returns. However, these findings are driven by differences in the stocks recommended and their market capitalization. After controlling for these selection effects, we find no difference in the performance of the buy- and sell-side analysts' strong buy/buy recommendations. This paper was accepted by Mary Barth, accounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Groysberg & Paul Healy & George Serafeim & Devin Shanthikumar, 2013. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1062-1075, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:59:y:2013:i:5:p:1062-1075
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1619
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1619?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    2. Gilles Hilary & Lior Menzly, 2006. "Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 489-500, April.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1655-1703 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    5. Patricia M. Dechow & Amy P. Hutton & Richard G. Sloan, 2000. "The Relation between Analysts' Forecasts of Long†Term Earnings Growth and Stock Price Performance Following Equity Offerings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, March.
    6. Li, Xi, 2005. "The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 129-152, December.
    7. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kim, Woojin, 2006. "Value of analyst recommendations: International evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-309, August.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2007. "Comparing the stock recommendation performance of investment banks and independent research firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 490-517, August.
    10. Saravanan Kesavan & Vishal Gaur & Ananth Raman, 2010. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(9), pages 1519-1533, September.
    11. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & McNichols, Maureen & Trueman, Brett, 2006. "Buys, holds, and sells: The distribution of investment banks' stock ratings and the implications for the profitability of analysts' recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 87-117, April.
    12. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    13. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    14. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    15. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    16. Pieter T. Elgers & May H. Lo & Dennis Murray, 1995. "Note on Adjustments to Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Based Upon Systematic Cross-Sectional Components of Prior-Period Errors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(8), pages 1392-1396, August.
    17. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    18. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock‐Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1695, August.
    19. Busse, Jeffrey A. & Clifton Green, T. & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2012. "Buy-side trades and sell-side recommendations: Interactions and information content," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 207-232.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Cheng, Yingmei & Liu, Mark H. & Qian, Jun, 2006. "Buy-Side Analysts, Sell-Side Analysts, and Investment Decisions of Money Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 51-83, March.
    22. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. "Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-572, June.
    23. Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou‐Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, September.
    24. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Ming Huang & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2004. "Does Fund Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? The Role of Liquidity and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1276-1302, December.
    25. Falkenstein, Eric G, 1996. "Preferences for Stock Characteristics as Revealed by Mutual Fund Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 111-135, March.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brown, Lawrence D. & Call, Andrew C. & Clement, Michael B. & Sharp, Nathan Y., 2016. "The activities of buy-side analysts and the determinants of their stock recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 139-156.
    2. Christof Beuselinck & Philip Joos & Inder Khurana & Sofie van Der Meulen, 2017. "Which Analysts Benefited Most from Mandatory IFRS Adoption in Europe?," Post-Print hal-01745251, HAL.
    3. Cici, Gjergji & Rosenfeld, Claire, 2016. "A study of analyst-run mutual funds: The abilities and roles of buy-side analysts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 8-29.
    4. Steven Crawford & Wesley Gray & Bryan R. Johnson & Richard A. Price, 2018. "What Motivates Buy-Side Analysts to Share Recommendations Online?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2574-2589, June.
    5. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2021. "Institutional underperformance: Should managers listen to the sell-side before trading?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 389-410, July.
    6. Barniv, Ran Ron & Chen, Min & Li, We, 2020. "The market reaction to analyst stock recommendation and earnings forecast consistency: International evidence," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick, 2014. "The influence of buy-side analysts on mutual fund trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 442-458.
    8. Minkwan Ahn & Michael Drake & Hangsoo Kyung & Han Stice, 2019. "The role of the business press in the pricing of analysts’ recommendation revisions," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 341-392, March.
    9. Bingxu Fang & Ole-Kristian Hope & Zhongwei Huang & Rucsandra Moldovan, 2020. "The effects of MiFID II on sell-side analysts, buy-side analysts, and firms," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 855-902, September.
    10. Michael J. Jung & M. H. Franco Wong & X. Frank Zhang, 2018. "Buy‐Side Analysts and Earnings Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 913-952, June.
    11. Michael Rebello & Kelsey D. Wei, 2014. "A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door: The Long‐Term Investment Value of Buy‐Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 775-815, June.
    12. Hari Venkatesh & Jyoti Kumari & Gourishankar S. Hiremath & Hiranmoy Roy, 2021. "Foreign Institutional Investors: Fair-Weather Friends or Smart Traders?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(2), pages 291-316, June.
    13. Pacelli, Joseph, 2019. "Corporate culture and analyst catering⁎," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 120-143.
    14. Jeremy Burke & Angela A. Hung & Jack Clift & Steven Garber & Joanne K. Yoong, 2015. "Impacts of Conflicts of Interest in the Financial Services Industry," Working Papers WR-1076, RAND Corporation.
    15. Matteo Prato & Fabrizio Ferraro, 2018. "Starstruck: How Hiring High-Status Employees Affects Incumbents’ Performance," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 755-774, October.
    16. Call, Andrew C. & Sharp, Nathan Y. & Shohfi, Thomas D., 2021. "Which buy-side institutions participate in public earnings conference calls? Implications for capital markets and sell-side coverage," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Jordan Martel & Edward Dickersin Van Wesep & Robert Van Wesep, 2022. "Ratings and Cooperative Information Transmission," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 9175-9197, December.
    18. Gong, Pu & Weng, Yingliang, 2016. "Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 173-191.
    19. Radoc, Benjamin, 2018. "Case-based investing: Stock selection under uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 53-59.
    20. Huai-Chun Lo & Chia-Ying Chan, 2023. "Mean reverting in stock ratings distribution," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1065-1097, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    3. Cheolwoo Lee, 2013. "Analyst firm parent–subsidiary relationship and conflict of interest: evidence from IPO recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 763-789, September.
    4. Juyoun Ryoo & Cheolwoo Lee & Jin Q Jeon, 2020. "Sustainability of Analyst Recommendations in Multiple Lead Underwriter IPOs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-36, March.
    5. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh, 2015. "A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 42-51, January.
    6. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    8. William Baker & Gregory Dumont, 2014. "Equity Analyst Recommendations: A Case for Affirmative Disclosure?," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 96-123, March.
    9. Thabang Mokoaleli-Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 384-418.
    10. Gus De Franco & Hai Lu & Florin P. Vasvari, 2007. "Wealth Transfer Effects of Analysts' Misleading Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 71-110, March.
    11. Hassan Tehranian & Mengxing Zhao & Julie L. Zhu, 2014. "Can Analysts Analyze Mergers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 959-979, April.
    12. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2021. "Institutional underperformance: Should managers listen to the sell-side before trading?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 389-410, July.
    13. Gus De Franco & Florin P. Vasvari & Regina Wittenberg‐Moerman, 2009. "The Informational Role of Bond Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1201-1248, December.
    14. Thabang Mokoaleli‐Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3‐4), pages 384-418, April.
    15. Lim, Youngdeok & Kim, Hyungtae, 2019. "Market reaction to optimistic bias in the recommendations of chaebol-affiliated analysts," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 224-242.
    16. Anup Agrawal & Mark A. Chen, 2008. "Do Analyst Conflicts Matter? Evidence from Stock Recommendations," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 503-537, August.
    17. Will J. Armstrong & Egemen Genc & Marno Verbeek, 2019. "Going for Gold: An Analysis of Morningstar Analyst Ratings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2310-2327, May.
    18. Michael Rebello & Kelsey D. Wei, 2014. "A Glimpse Behind a Closed Door: The Long‐Term Investment Value of Buy‐Side Research and Its Effect on Fund Trades and Performance," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 775-815, June.
    19. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher J. Malloy, 2012. "Hiring Cheerleaders: Board Appointments of "Independent" Directors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1039-1058, June.
    20. Vesa Pursiainen, 2022. "Cultural Biases in Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 163-211, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:59:y:2013:i:5:p:1062-1075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.