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Repeated Optional Gambles and Risk Aversion

Author

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  • Christian Gollier

    (GREMAQ and IDEI, Université de Toulouse, France)

Abstract

We analyze in this paper the effect of age on the optimal dynamic strategy toward repeated independent gambles. When deciding to accept or to reject a lottery that is offered today, the gambler knows how many lotteries can yet be played in the future. We first characterize the optimal dynamic strategy when future lotteries are identically distributed. We show that the existence of future lotteries always increases the willingness to gamble today. When the sequence of lotteries is independent but not identically distributed, we show that this does not need to be true. This analysis can be applied to the problem of investing in indivisible risky investment projects, or to the problem of dynamic optimal insurance demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gollier, 1996. "Repeated Optional Gambles and Risk Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(11), pages 1524-1530, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:42:y:1996:i:11:p:1524-1530
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.42.11.1524
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jinkwon Lee, 2008. "The effect of the background risk in a simple chance improving decision model," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 19-41, February.
    2. Stefan Thurner & Rudolf Hanel & Stefan Pichler, 2003. "Risk trading, network topology and banking regulation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 306-319.
    3. Gollier, Christian & Lindsey, John & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 1997. "Investment Flexibility and the Acceptance of Risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 219-241, October.
    4. Xiaosheng Mu & Luciano Pomatto & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "From Blackwell Dominance in Large Samples to Rényi Divergences and Back Again," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 475-506, January.
    5. Whelan, Karl, 2024. "Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers With Decreasing Absolute Risk Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 19319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Aloysius, John A., 2003. "Rational escalation of costs by playing a sequence of unfavorable gambles: the martingale," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 111-129, May.
    7. Aloysius, John A., 2005. "Ambiguity aversion and the equity premium puzzle: A re-examination of experimental data on repeated gambles," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 635-655, October.
    8. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1999. "Risk Aversion or Myopia? Choices in Repeated Gambles and Retirement Investments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 364-381, March.
    9. Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2001. "Prospect Theory, Mental Accounting, and Differences in Aggregated and Segregated Evaluation of Lottery Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(5), pages 716-733, May.

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