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A Comparison of Two Elicitation Methods for a Prior Distribution for a Binomial Parameter

Author

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  • Umesh Gavasakar

    (Formerly at the University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point)

Abstract

This paper compares two methods of elicitation for the hyperparameters of the conjugate beta distribution for a binomial sampling model. The PM (posterior mode) method of Chaloner and Duncan appears to be more sensitive to elicitation errors than does a new method proposed here. This new method uses the device of imaginary results, due to I. J. Good (Good, I. J. 1967. A Bayesian significance test for multinomial distributions. JRSSB 29 399--431 (with discussion).). An explicit model for elicitation errors is used in a simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Umesh Gavasakar, 1988. "A Comparison of Two Elicitation Methods for a Prior Distribution for a Binomial Parameter," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 784-790, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:34:y:1988:i:6:p:784-790
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.34.6.784
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmelo León & Francisco Vázquez-Polo & Roberto González, 2003. "Elicitation of Expert Opinion in Benefit Transfer of Environmental Goods," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(2), pages 199-210, October.
    2. Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2011. "Default estimation, correlated defaults, and expert information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 173-192, March.
    3. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2007. "Default Estimation and Expert Information: All Likely Dataset Analysis and Robust Validation," Working Papers 07-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.

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