IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v33y1987i10p1267-1276.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Forecasting Combinations

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas D. Russell

    (Burlington Northern Motor Carriers Inc., Fort Worth, Texas 76102)

  • Everett E. Adam, Jr.

    (College of Business and Public Administration, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211)

Abstract

Combining naive forecasting models as an alternative to using any one model has shown promise for improving forecasting accuracy at reasonable additional cost. This study extends previous combination modeling by selectively including models in combination rather than using all individual models in a set, evaluating six new model combinations and comparing them to three previously investigated model combinations, investigating the impact of forecasting time horizon, and investigating alternative error measures to mean square error (MSE). Results support using a model-combination that (1) selects the best 3 to 5 models from the 10 models studied and (2) weights the selected models based upon the inverse proportion of their individual accuracy as measured by MSE.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas D. Russell & Everett E. Adam, Jr., 1987. "An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Forecasting Combinations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(10), pages 1267-1276, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:10:p:1267-1276
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.10.1267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.10.1267
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.33.10.1267?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schneider, Carsten & Klapper, Matthias & Wenzel, Thomas, 1999. "An evaluation of forecasting methods and forecast combination methods in goods management systems," Technical Reports 1999,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    2. Troschke, Sven-Oliver, 1998. "A selective procedure for combining forecasts," Technical Reports 1998,36, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    3. Liginlal, Divakaran & Ow, Terence T., 2005. "On policy capturing with fuzzy measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 461-474, December.
    4. Zhiqiang Zheng & Balaji Padmanabhan, 2007. "Constructing Ensembles from Data Envelopment Analysis," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 486-496, November.
    5. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Ma, Tiejun, 2012. "A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 163-174.
    6. Wenzel, Thomas, 2000. "Hits-and-misses for the evaluation and combination of forecasts," Technical Reports 2000,26, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:10:p:1267-1276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.