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Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming

Author

Listed:
  • Cornelis A. De Kluyver

    (University of Virginia)

  • Herbert Moskowitz

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelis A. De Kluyver & Herbert Moskowitz, 1984. "Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 273-278, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:30:y:1984:i:3:p:273-278
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.30.3.273
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    Cited by:

    1. M Tavana & M A Sodenkamp, 2010. "A fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis model for advanced technology assessment at Kennedy Space Center," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1459-1470, October.
    2. Chady Jabbour & Anis Hoayek & Jean-Michel Salles, 2022. "Formalizing a Two-Step Decision-Making Process in Land Use: Evidence from Controlling Forest Clearcutting Using Spatial Information," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Ilmola-Sheppard, Leena, 2018. "Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 205-220.
    4. Moormann, Jürgen, 1987. "Zum Einsatz von MICRO-FCS und Symphony für die strategische Unternehmensplanung," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 202, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    5. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2008. "Cross-impact balances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3689-3700.

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