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Forecasting Market Shares of Alternative Home-Heating Units by Markov Process using Transition Probabilities Estimated from Aggregate Time Series Data

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  • Ali Ezzati

    (Federal Energy Office, Washington, D.C.)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to forecast the market shares of alternative home-heating units: oil-burners, gas-burners and electric-heating units for the United States. The forecasting method used is The Markov Process with estimated transition probability matrices. The transition probabilities represent whether households will continue to use the same heating unit which they have used in the recent past or switch to another type unit. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation techniques have been used to estimate these transition probabilities from aggregate historical market shares of alternative home-heating units.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ezzati, 1974. "Forecasting Market Shares of Alternative Home-Heating Units by Markov Process using Transition Probabilities Estimated from Aggregate Time Series Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 462-473, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:21:y:1974:i:4:p:462-473
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.21.4.462
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    Cited by:

    1. Florence Lindsay W & Fellingham Gilbert W & Vehrs Pat R. & Mortensen Nina P., 2008. "Skill Evaluation in Women's Volleyball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Mateane, Lebogang, 2023. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 402-418.

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