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Automating Judgmental Decision Making for a Serious Medical Problem

Author

Listed:
  • Norman E. Betaque

    (Currently with U.S. Army, Viet Nam)

  • G. Anthony Gorry

    (Sloan School of Management, M.I.T)

Abstract

A decision theory model of the diagnosis and treatment of a serious medical condition, acute renal failure, has been implemented as part of a study of automated judgmental decision-making. An interactive diagnostic computer program was used to test the model. This program employs formal decision procedures and the subjective assessment of likelihoods and preferences of experts to analyze the diagnostic/treatment problem. The program's success in duplicating the decisions of expert clinicians in about 90 per cent of the cases used indicates that the method of analysis is not only a convenient structure for theoretically describing diagnosis and treatment, but that it is potentially a practical way of analyzing such decision problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman E. Betaque & G. Anthony Gorry, 1971. "Automating Judgmental Decision Making for a Serious Medical Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(8), pages 421-434, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:17:y:1971:i:8:p:b421-b434
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.17.8.B421
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.17.8.B421
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    Cited by:

    1. G. Anthony Gorry & Thelma Jean Goodrich, 1978. "On the Role of Values in Program Evaluation," Evaluation Review, , vol. 2(4), pages 561-572, November.

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