IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v14y1967i4pb236-b249.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ranking Procedures and Subjective Probability Distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Lee H. Smith

    (The University of Texas at Arlington)

Abstract

For the most part, modern management has become gradually conditioned to techniques involving the use of subjective probability distributions. In spite of this conditioning, there remain a few who are still somewhat skeptical with regard to the use of such distributions. However, in many instances principal objections are leveled, not toward subjectivity per se, but, rather, toward "nebulous subjectivity." Many managers still associate an air of mysticism with the development of subjective probability distributions. This is not surprising in view of the facts that (1) relatively little material in pertinent literature is devoted to discussions of methods for deriving subjective distributions, and (2) a large percentage of those discussions which do appear can best be characterized as hand-waving approaches. The purpose of the present article is two-fold. First, the article proposes a specific, logical, and consistent procedure for deriving subjective probability distributions. The procedure, which involves the use of statistical ranking techniques, is exemplified for the purpose of clarity. Second, and possibly even more important than the first objective, the procedure is set forth in the hope that it will stimulate further activity toward development of improved methods for deriving subjective distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee H. Smith, 1967. "Ranking Procedures and Subjective Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(4), pages 236-249, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:14:y:1967:i:4:p:b236-b249
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.14.4.B236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.4.B236
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.14.4.B236?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fishel, Walter L., 1970. "The Minnesota Agricultural Research Resource Allocation Information System And Experiment," Staff Papers 13726, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. Cassidy, P.A. & Rodgers, J.L. & McCarthy, W.O., 1970. "A Simulation Approach to Risk Assessment in Investment Analysis," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 38(01), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Gilberto Montibeller, 2015. "Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rankā€Based Method," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1317-1335, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:14:y:1967:i:4:p:b236-b249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.