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Arts Plan: Implementation, Evolution, and Usage

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  • Charles B. Weinberg

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

This paper discusses the evolutionary development of an implemented, regression-based forecasting system used in planning and managing a schedule of performing arts events. In particular, the changing usage and refinement of this system is examined over a five-year period. One issue addressed is whether the manager, who can accept a regression forecast or revise it, is more accurate than the estimates produced by the regression model alone. The literature on bootstrapping and behavioral decision theory is used in examining the impact of managerial judgment on forecast accuracy. In addition, the paper presents a detailed review of the approaches used over time to revise the original forecasting system and an evaluation of their accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles B. Weinberg, 1986. "Arts Plan: Implementation, Evolution, and Usage," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 143-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:2:p:143-158
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.5.2.143
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamakura, Wagner A. & Schimmel, Carl W., 2013. "Uncovering audience preferences for concert features from single-ticket sales with a factor-analytic random-coefficients model," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 129-142.
    2. Ateca-Amestoy, Victoria & Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan, 2013. "Forecasting accuracy of behavioural models for participation in the arts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 124-131.
    3. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sanjeev Swami, 2006. "—Research Perspectives at the Interface of Marketing and Operations: Applications to the Motion Picture Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 670-673, 11-12.
    5. Sanjeev Swami & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Charles B. Weinberg, 1999. "SilverScreener: A Modeling Approach to Movie Screens Management," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 352-372.
    6. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Sanjeev Swami & Charles B. Weinberg & Berend Wierenga, 2001. "Implementing and Evaluating SilverScreener: A Marketing Management Support System for Movie Exhibitors," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 108-127, June.
    7. Kumar, V. & Nagpal, Anish & Venkatesan, Rajkumar, 2002. "Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 583-603.

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