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Assessing the Influence of Campaign Expenditures on Voting Behavior with a Comprehensive Electoral Market Model

Author

Listed:
  • Randall G. Chapman

    (University of Alberta)

  • Kristian S. Palda

    (Queen's University)

Abstract

This paper extends previous single equation econometric modeling efforts of the “sales-advertising” relationship in elections. Operating within the perspective of the general demand context of voting behavior, it develops a comprehensive electoral market model that takes account of potential simultaneous relationships among votes cast, campaign expenditures, and voting participation (turnout). The model is estimated using 3SLS techniques with aggregate electoral district data from each of eight Canadian provincial elections. The model appears to yield consistent and therefore generalizable empirical results across the eight election events. Chief among the empirical results is the expected relationship between campaign efforts and voting behavior: “own” communications efforts (as proxied by campaign expenditures) have a positive impact on votes received, while competitive communications efforts draw votes away from a candidate.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall G. Chapman & Kristian S. Palda, 1984. "Assessing the Influence of Campaign Expenditures on Voting Behavior with a Comprehensive Electoral Market Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 207-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:3:y:1984:i:3:p:207-226
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.3.3.207
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. K. Palda & Kristian Palda, 1985. "Ceilings on campaign spending: Hypothesis and partial test with Canadian data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 313-331, January.
    2. Caroline D. Thomas, 2021. "Strategic Experimentation with Congestion," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-82, February.
    3. Yi Xiang & Miklos Sarvary, 2007. "News Consumption and Media Bias," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 611-628, 09-10.
    4. Caroline D. Thomas, 2009. "N-Dimensional Blotto Game with Asymmetric Battlefield Values," Department of Economics Working Papers 130116, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2016.
    5. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    6. Sung-Kyu Lee, 2013. "The Effects of Election Advertising Spending and Incumbency on the General Election Results in Great Britain," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 97-118, May.
    7. Caroline Thomas, 2018. "N-dimensional Blotto game with heterogeneous battlefield values," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(3), pages 509-544, May.
    8. Charles Blankart, 1987. "Presidential address Fourteen years of European Public Choice Society research," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 3-14, January.
    9. Palda Filip & Palda Kristian, 1991. "Campaign Spending And Campaign Finance Issues : An Economic View," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2-3), pages 291-314, June.

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