Reliability of Models in the Social Sciences

A model is a device for helping man to think rationally. Sometimes it takes a very simple form, as when we say that an assertion A cannot be both true and false. Sometimes it takes a more subtle form, as when we construct rules for thinking about risky situations.Sometimes men build physical models to help them think about reality. A wind tunnel or the model solar system one sees at the planetarium are examples. These physical models are designed to have many of the properties of the real objects. Furthermore, one can manipulate the models and determine the consequences of certain changes if they were to occur. One fascinating exercise of planetaria consists of taking the audience through thousands of years of astronomical history. In this way, they can think more adequately about the stellar environment in which they live.Some models strip away large parts of the real event and display only the characteristics of interest. A so-called “communication map” of a company is an excellent example. Such maps display by arrows how messages and other means of communication are transmitted in the company. The map does not show anyone talking to anyone else, and yet one can easily determine from the map which persons communicate with each other. The map helps us think about communication system and possibly helps us to think how we should modify it.Finally, there are models that are expressed in terms of a very rich language that enables us to discuss reality in a precise way and to use fantastically ingenious methods to predict the consequences of proposed changes in the real world. It is these so called mathematical models that will concern us in this chapter.