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When Is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing?

Author

Listed:
  • Louis Anthony Cox

    (Cox Associates, Denver, Colorado 80218)

  • Gerald G. Brown

    (Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943)

  • Stephen M. Pollock

    (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

Abstract

In areas of risk assessment ranging from terrorism to health, safety, and the environment, authoritative guidance urges risk analysts to quantify and display their uncertainties about inputs that significantly affect the results of an analysis, including their uncertainties about subjective probabilities of events. Such “uncertainty characterization” is said to be an important part of fully and honestly informing decision makers about the estimates and uncertainties in analyses that support policy recommendations, enabling them to make better decisions. But is it? Characterization of uncertainties about probabilities often carries zero value of information and accomplishes nothing to improve risk-management decisions. Uncertainties about consequence probabilities are not worth characterizing when final actions must be taken based on information available now.“But there seemed to be no chance of this, so she began looking at everything about her to pass away the time.”---Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Anthony Cox & Gerald G. Brown & Stephen M. Pollock, 2008. "When Is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 38(6), pages 465-468, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:38:y:2008:i:6:p:465-468
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.1080.0397
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Gregory & Theresa Satterfield & David R. Boyd, 2020. "People, Pipelines, and Probabilities: Clarifying Significance and Uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 218-226, February.
    2. McKelvie, Alexander & Haynie, J. Michael & Gustavsson, Veronica, 2011. "Unpacking the uncertainty construct: Implications for entrepreneurial action," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 273-292, May.
    3. Vicki M. Bier & Shi‐Woei Lin, 2013. "On the Treatment of Uncertainty and Variability in Making Decisions About Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1899-1907, October.

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