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Generating Scenarios for the Towers Perrin Investment System

Author

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  • John M. Mulvey

    (Department of Civil Engineering and Operations Research, E-Quad, Olden Street, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544)

Abstract

The Towers Perrin company applies integrative asset-liability planning to the problem of pension management. The planning system depends upon a stochastic economic projection model—called CAP:Link—for generating economic factors and asset returns via a set of representative scenarios. Each scenario depicts a coherent set of outcomes. The projections span a long-run horizon—10 to 40 years. Risks and rewards for alternative investment strategies are determined via dynamic asset and liability allocation over the scenarios. The approach has been implemented in 12 countries in Europe, North America, and Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Mulvey, 1996. "Generating Scenarios for the Towers Perrin Investment System," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:26:y:1996:i:2:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.26.2.1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Owen, Susan Hesse & Daskin, Mark S., 1998. "Strategic facility location: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 423-447, December.
    2. Luis Rios & Nikolaos Sahinidis, 2010. "Portfolio optimization for wealth-dependent risk preferences," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 63-90, June.
    3. Consiglio, Andrea & Tumminello, Michele & Zenios, Stavros A., 2015. "Designing and pricing guarantee options in defined contribution pension plans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 267-279.
    4. Beltratti, Andrea & Laurant, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2004. "Scenario modelling for selective hedging strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 955-974, February.
    5. Birge, John R. & Júdice, Pedro, 2013. "Long-term bank balance sheet management: Estimation and simulation of risk-factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4711-4720.
    6. John M. Mulvey & Koray D. Simsek & Zhuojuan Zhang & Frank J. Fabozzi & William R. Pauling, 2008. "OR PRACTICE---Assisting Defined-Benefit Pension Plans," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 1066-1078, October.
    7. Hoyland, Kjetil & Wallace, Stein W., 2001. "Analyzing legal regulations in the Norwegian life insurance business using a multistage asset-liability management model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 293-308, October.
    8. Tokat, Yesim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "The stable non-Gaussian asset allocation: a comparison with the classical Gaussian approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 937-969, April.
    9. Sodhi, ManMohan S. & Tang, Christopher S., 2009. "Modeling supply-chain planning under demand uncertainty using stochastic programming: A survey motivated by asset-liability management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 728-738, October.
    10. S. Seshadri & A. Khanna & F. Harche & R. Wyle, 1999. "A Method for Strategic Asset-Liability Management with an Application to the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(3), pages 345-360, June.
    11. John M. Mulvey & Gordon Gould & Clive Morgan, 2000. "An Asset and Liability Management System for Towers Perrin-Tillinghast," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 96-114, February.
    12. Tokat, Yesim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2000. "The Stable non-Gaussian Asset Allocation: A Comparison with the Classical Gaussian Approach," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9ph6b5gp, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    13. Sergio Alvares Maffra & John Armstrong & Teemu Pennanen, 2020. "Stochastic modeling of assets and liabilities with mortality risk," Papers 2005.09974, arXiv.org.
    14. C A Poojari & C Lucas & G Mitra, 2008. "Robust solutions and risk measures for a supply chain planning problem under uncertainty," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(1), pages 2-12, January.
    15. Maranas, C. D. & Androulakis, I. P. & Floudas, C. A. & Berger, A. J. & Mulvey, J. M., 1997. "Solving long-term financial planning problems via global optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1405-1425, June.
    16. Alois Geyer & William T. Ziemba, 2008. "The Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning Model InnoALM," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(4), pages 797-810, August.
    17. Blomvall, Jorgen & Lindberg, Per Olov, 2003. "Back-testing the performance of an actively managed option portfolio at the Swedish Stock Market, 1990-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1099-1112, April.
    18. ManMohan S. Sodhi, 2005. "LP Modeling for Asset-Liability Management: A Survey of Choices and Simplifications," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 181-196, April.

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