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AIDS: Predicting the Next Map

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Gould

    (Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802)

  • Joseph Kabel

    (Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802)

  • Wilpen Gorr

    (School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890)

  • Andrew Golub

    (School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890)

Abstract

In modeling the AIDS epidemic, the geographic dimensions have been totally ignored, partly as a result of ignorance, partly from an exaggerated and unreasoned concern for confidentiality. For both educational intervention (animated cartography for television) and health planning (expanding already overstressed facilities), it is necessary to predict the next maps, not just numbers down the time line. Spatial adaptive filtering, combined with parametric tracking, searches out and employs both spatial and temporal structure in ( x , y , t ) series, producing geographic forecasts with greatly reduced error terms compared to conventional approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Gould & Joseph Kabel & Wilpen Gorr & Andrew Golub, 1991. "AIDS: Predicting the Next Map," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 80-92, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:21:y:1991:i:3:p:80-92
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.21.3.80
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomoki Nakaya & Katsumi Nakase & Ken Osaka, 2005. "Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 313-336, December.

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