IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v1y2004i1p51-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Approximating Risk Aversion in Decision Analysis Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Craig W. Kirkwood

    (Department of Supply Chain Management, Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona 85287-4706)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of risk aversion in decision analyses under uncertainty with a single evaluation measure and presents a simple procedure for approximately addressing risk aversion in a way that is defensible for many decisions. Specifically, a simulation study is presented that leads to guidelines for determining when an expected utility analysis should be conducted for a decision, rather than simply an expected value analysis, and what form of utility function should be used for this expected utility analysis. The simulation study shows that a sensitivity analysis using an exponential utility function should be conducted for most decision analyses, but that this sensitivity analysis can often establish, without requiring utility information from the decision maker , that no further utility analysis is required. In addition, when further utility analysis is required, the simulation study shows that this can be done in a simple way using an exponential utility function that will be accurate for many decision analyses. However, in situations where there is equal or greater downside risk than upside potential, a more detailed study of the decision maker's utility function may be necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig W. Kirkwood, 2004. "Approximating Risk Aversion in Decision Analysis Applications," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 51-67, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:1:y:2004:i:1:p:51-67
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1030.0007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1030.0007
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1030.0007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter H. Farquhar & Yutaka Nakamura, 1988. "Utility assessment procedures for polynomial‐exponential functions," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 597-613, December.
    2. James L. Corner & Craig W. Kirkwood, 1991. "Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970–1989," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 206-219, April.
    3. Peter H. Farquhar & Yutaka Nakamura, 1987. "Constant Exchange Risk Properties," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 206-214, April.
    4. David E. Bell, 1995. "A Contextual Uncertainty Condition for Behavior Under Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(7), pages 1145-1150, July.
    5. Dan J. Laughhunn & John W. Payne & Roy Crum, 1980. "Managerial Risk Preferences for Below-Target Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(12), pages 1238-1249, December.
    6. Charles M. Harvey, 1990. "Structured Prescriptive Models of Risk Attitudes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(12), pages 1479-1501, December.
    7. Ronald A. Howard, 1988. "Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 679-695, June.
    8. Jianmin Jia & James S. Dyer, 1996. "A Standard Measure of Risk and Risk-Value Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(12), pages 1691-1705, December.
    9. David E. Bell & Peter C. Fishburn, 2001. "Strong One-Switch Utility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 601-604, April.
    10. Patrick L. Brockett & Linda L. Golden, 1987. "A Class of Utility Functions Containing all the Common Utility Functions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(8), pages 955-964, August.
    11. John S. Hammond, III, 1974. "Simplifying the Choice between Uncertain Prospects Where Preference is Nonlinear," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(7), pages 1047-1072, March.
    12. Markowitz, Harry M, 1991. "Foundations of Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 469-477, June.
    13. Dana R. Clyman & Michael R. Walls & James S. Dyer, 1999. "Too Much of a Good Thing?," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(6), pages 957-965, December.
    14. Donald L. Keefer, 1991. "Resource Allocation Models with Risk Aversion and Probabilistic Dependence: Offshore Oil and Gas Bidding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 377-395, April.
    15. David E. Bell, 1988. "One-Switch Utility Functions and a Measure of Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(12), pages 1416-1424, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Charles X. & Webster, Scott & Suresh, Nallan C., 2009. "Would a risk-averse newsvendor order less at a higher selling price?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 544-553, July.
    2. David E. Bell & Peter C. Fishburn, 2001. "Strong One-Switch Utility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 601-604, April.
    3. Andrea C. Hupman & Jay Simon, 2023. "The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Conniffe, Denis, 2008. "Generalised Means of Simple Utility Functions with Risk Aversion," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-12.
    5. Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2009. "Multiattribute Utility Satisfying a Preference for Combining Good with Bad," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1942-1952, December.
    6. Mitchell, Douglas W. & Gelles, Gregory M., 2003. "Risk-value models: Restrictions and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 109-120, February.
    7. Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2005. "Risky Choices and Correlated Background Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1336-1345, September.
    8. Sancetta, A., 2005. "Copula Based Monte Carlo Integration in Financial Problems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0506, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Denuit, Michel M. & Eeckhoudt, Louis & Schlesinger, Harris, 2013. "When Ross meets Bell: The linex utility function," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 177-182.
    10. LiCalzi, Marco & Sorato, Annamaria, 2006. "The Pearson system of utility functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 560-573, July.
    11. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2010. "Portfolio selection in multidimensional general and partial moment space," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-656, April.
    12. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    13. W. Wong & R. Chan, 2008. "Prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominance," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 105-129, January.
    14. Emmanuel Jurczenko & Bertrand Maillet & Paul Merlin, 2008. "Efficient Frontier for Robust Higher-order Moment Portfolio Selection," Post-Print halshs-00336475, HAL.
    15. Thomas Eichner, 2008. "Mean Variance Vulnerability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(3), pages 586-593, March.
    16. Electra V. Petracou & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Decision Making Under Model Uncertainty: Fréchet–Wasserstein Mean Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1195-1211, February.
    17. Jianmin Jia & James S. Dyer & John C. Butler, 1999. "Measures of Perceived Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(4), pages 519-532, April.
    18. Henry Stott, 2006. "Cumulative prospect theory's functional menagerie," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 101-130, March.
    19. BakIr, Niyazi Onur & Klutke, Georgia-Ann, 2011. "Information and preference reversals in lotteries," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 752-756, May.
    20. Georges Dionne & Jingyuan Li, 2012. "Comparative Ross Risk Aversion in the Presence of Quadrant Dependent Risks," Cahiers de recherche 1226, CIRPEE.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:1:y:2004:i:1:p:51-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.