IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ine/journl/v48y2019i57p63-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of Nigeria Manufacturing Sector Growth Rates Using Arima Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan O. ONIORE

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Social and Management Sciences, Bingham University, Karu, Nigeria)

  • Uju R. EZENEKWE

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria)

  • Uche C.C NWOGWUGWU

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify a good forecasting model that can predict Nigeria’s future manufacturing sector growth rate and to ascertain whether policy makers could maintain a steady and sustainable growth rate in the manufacturing sector. The study employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on annual data from 1970 to 2014 on manufacturing production index (MPI) as a measure of manufacturing sector growth rate. The ARIMA model selected is the Autoregressive (AR) [ARIMA (1, 0, 0)]. That is, the AR(1) model was selected as the most appropriate for forecasting model for manufacturing sector growth rates in Nigeria. The forecasted values of manufacturing sector growth for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 using Dynamic Forecast were 72.1%, 75.6%, 75.9%, 76.4%, 76.8% and 77.2% respectively. The major finding of this study is that Nigeria’s manufacturing sector future growth rate is moving gradually with an average annual projected growth of approximately 90.8 %. The projected rate showed that Nigeria needs to double her efforts in order to fructify its vision of becoming twenty largest economies in the world by 2020 and the 12th largest economy by 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan O. ONIORE & Uju R. EZENEKWE & Uche C.C NWOGWUGWU, 2019. "Forecasting of Nigeria Manufacturing Sector Growth Rates Using Arima Model," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 48(1(57)), pages 63-70, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:48:y:2019:i:57:p:63-70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revecon.ro/articles/2019-1/2019-1-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Manufacturing; Forecasting; ARIMA; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • N37 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Africa; Oceania

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:48:y:2019:i:57:p:63-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentina Vasile (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.